Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C or higher on March 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x806f7b902f03309ec4516e42290b942abedccf4c3b9ed1f1f54440cc9b55bd65
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,053
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,875
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,053 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 1c | 11,293$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.38 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 2c | 9,637$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.46 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 2c | 5,374$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.16 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 2c | 4,441$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.1 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 7c | 1,943$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.66 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 2c | 1,922$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.01 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 4c | 1,534$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.79 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 2c | 1,301$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 164 | 32.9%54 W · 110 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 2c | 833.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9536…68f9backed Yes | 2c | 662.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 4c | 641.62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 3c | 548.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xac55…e54abacked Yes | 2c | 526$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 6c | 477.28$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2783…22c0backed Yes | 3c | 456.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +6.0wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 4c | 390.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41b0…26a7backed Yes | 12c | 386.25$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 19c | 377.9$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.06 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 7c | 372.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4efc…6391backed No | 72c | 250.62$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.28 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 6c | 185.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3182…4ff7backed No | 79c | 183.99$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.08 | 141 | 68.1%96 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ca…2acabacked Yes | 10c | 183.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 89 | 22.5%20 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf034…e6d8backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 17c | 72.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x605a…bf3bbacked Yes | 21c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x339e…c5fbbacked Yes | 26c | 44.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcafd…b861backed No | 80c | 32$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 72 | 72.2%52 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 58c | 25.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d24…fd43backed No | 74c | 20.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…af4bbacked No | 71c | 15.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 199 | 70.4%140 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C or higher on March 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on March 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.