Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on March 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x097982fd721c9ebd5b82baae3a9a585b67c87b778ccd5cc6e003f60519792b8a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,153
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,891
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,153 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc2fe…f0fbbacked Yes | 1c | 1,020$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 5c | 900$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 2c | 570$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 28c | 293.6$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.57 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed No | 47c | 251.19$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.14 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed No | 65c | 232.4$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.56 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…0cc5backed No | 69c | 219.64$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.14 | 106 | 31.1%33 W · 73 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7e…063fbacked Yes | 24c | 200$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac55…e54abacked No | 68c | 179.38$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.26 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99d5…9622backed Yes | 8c | 174.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 26c | 162.6$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked No | 46c | 160$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd817…b8e7backed Yes | 21c | 145.24$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 65c | 122.07$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.44 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 29c | 119.14$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.52 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 46c | 112$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.12 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 30c | 105$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 24c | 85.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b6…0203backed No | 73c | 81.03$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.07 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c51…4841backed Yes | 41c | 76.05$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -43%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a15…52d6backed Yes | 37c | 74.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed No | 76c | 66.89$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7948…a8a2backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 58c | 53.8$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.39 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 23c | 51.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9729…038abacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec4d…07b9backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78bc…076dbacked Yes | 38c | 44.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 41.55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…6604backed No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…f7f7backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -7.8wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 29.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5c…4568backed No | 70c | 26.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 69c | 25.18$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x416e…7448backed No | 72c | 20.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72d0…52f0backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9907…ca66backed No | 63c | 16.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on March 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on March 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C or higher on March 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.