Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on March 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd48f162fec0eba2220667d11d2e7a933a6864e730bd2584a2ebd73c2df59fd3e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,655
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,238
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,655 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6de…6f5ebacked No | 60c | 1,110$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.68 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 45c | 1,018$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.4 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 6c | 975.91$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.44 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea8…c8bdbacked Yes | 23c | 772$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.32 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac55…e54abacked Yes | 46c | 413.59$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.39 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 9c | 358.68$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.14 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc69…5797backed Yes | 13c | 209.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 13c | 202.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 12c | 168.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed Yes | 12c | 153.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 133 | 15%20 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2783…22c0backed No | 28c | 120$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +6.0wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1f44…ace3backed No | 25c | 115.22$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.95 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +11.9wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 47c | 111.15$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.91 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 11c | 110$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 28c | 110$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b06…ae19backed Yes | 10c | 106.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 22cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 23c | 105.49$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.64 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2512…9030backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.5 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f1…710bbacked Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed Yes | 13c | 89.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…0cc5backed Yes | 69c | 85.29$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.63 | 106 | 31.1%33 W · 73 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef62…2cfebacked Yes | 61c | 82.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 73c | 80.9$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 51c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 34c | 76.44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 28c | 73.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.53 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 69c | 70$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45a7…5c41backed Yes | 20c | 69.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 44c | 65.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 62c | 58.71$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.28 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01ca…2acabacked No | 19c | 57.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.37 | 89 | 22.5%20 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x099c…18e8backed Yes | 25c | 54.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9757…2dbfbacked Yes | 57c | 44.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe01f…ff34backed Yes | 78c | 41.47$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.51 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 52c | 40.86$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 41c | 35.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 32c | 34.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 51c | 28.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…a20abacked No | 78c | 28.18$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 78c | 27.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 80c | 27.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85c1…c1a4backed Yes | 43c | 26.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xcb81…7b82backed Yes | 49c | 24.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 66c | 22.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb30d…d6c4backed Yes | 67c | 21.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed No | 64c | 20.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2be3…7940backed Yes | 50c | 20.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 51c | 19.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 76c | 19.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95b2…49aabacked Yes | 76c | 19.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…af4bbacked No | 69c | 16.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 199 | 70.4%140 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 78c | 15.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on March 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on March 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C or higher on March 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.