Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86cb30c0f8d757bb0d2ec549e82c9b45688491419b15b1d881012d93f9c953de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,880
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,489
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,880 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 1c | 1,860$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 7c | 694.64$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.01 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked No | 2c | 564.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 48c | 259.97$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.79 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 8c | 210.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 22c | 165.7$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.09 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 7c | 163$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 51c | 155.92$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.92 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 43c | 136.15$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.62 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 52c | 128$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.44 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 46c | 124.13$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.67 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 49c | 100.53$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.16 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 50c | 96$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 48c | 80.71$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.86 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 13c | 80.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 26c | 79.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 70$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…3ff9backed No | 27c | 68.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 49c | 62.69$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 36c | 62.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1440…7712backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 26c | 59.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1b…7eb7backed Yes | 47c | 50.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 47.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…3f63backed Yes | 46c | 43.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.27 | 138 | 39.1%54 W · 84 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 48c | 40.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 50c | 40.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 51c | 39.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 52c | 38.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4da0…5c08backed Yes | 51c | 37.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb35…0988backed No | 51c | 35.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43bc…fcdfbacked Yes | 65c | 30.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d07…2b94backed No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ef…f19cbacked Yes | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 68c | 29.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x837c…d774backed Yes | 52c | 29.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 52c | 26.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…03bebacked Yes | 52c | 25.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 48c | 25.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 50c | 24.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 51c | 23.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 48c | 21.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf663…ea33backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63ac…3fc9backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 83 | 66.3%55 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa11e…1b2dbacked No | 56c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked Yes | 77c | 16.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.