NBA · resolved market
Spread: Celtics (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86cb5a0faea992e4dc5349f3992237baa055cf4a9ed5c11e9c1382dd917708f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 76ersof Celtics, 76ers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,876
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,879
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,876 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Celtics | 58c | 4,218$2,428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,428.41 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed 76ers | 38c | 1,674$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,046.2 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked 76ers | 45c | 1,400$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770 | 121 | 43%52 W · 69 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed 76ers | 42c | 802$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.57 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0a…c2c4backed Celtics | 62c | 480.92$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked 76ers | 44c | 401$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.48 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked 76ers | 42c | 264.29$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.19 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7247…552cbacked 76ers | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +101.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed 76ers | 53c | 185$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.95 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Celtics | 59c | 140$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.6 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed 76ers | 54c | 96$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.31 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked 76ers | 44c | 73$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.13 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed 76ers | 42c | 31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Celtics | 45c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Celtics (-1.5)this page
- 76ers vs. Celtics76ers won
- 76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 227.5Over won
- 76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 228.5Over won
- 76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 229.5Over won
- Spread: 76ers (-1.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-2.5)76ers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.