NBA · resolved market
Spread: Celtics (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11a805907a8f77009a843a0c8e27a46f8bb0963b78f57c25fabff31a96ed18f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 76ersof Celtics, 76ers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,435
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,152
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,435 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed 76ers | 39c | 12,034$4,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,384.35 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Celtics | 61c | 11,667$7,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,154.82 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06d…dd3ebacked Celtics | 62c | 8,113$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Celtics | 60c | 6,302$3,781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,781.39 | 258 | 47.3%122 W · 136 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed 76ers | 40c | 5,806$2,327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,479.08 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed 76ers | 39c | 2,564$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,564.04 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Celtics | 52c | 2,507$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300.21 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked 76ers | 40c | 2,265$909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,355.12 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…faf0backed Celtics | 53c | 2,000$1,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,066.67 | 158 | 49.4%78 W · 80 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed 76ers | 50c | 1,569$785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$784.5 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked 76ers | 42c | 1,500$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$870 | 956 | 41.7%399 W · 557 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked 76ers | 47c | 1,391$654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736.36 | 121 | 43%52 W · 69 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked 76ers | 42c | 1,146$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.5 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked 76ers | 41c | 999.99$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.99 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad5b…d645backed 76ers | 40c | 625$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed 76ers | 46c | 575$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.43 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49d1…7b96backed 76ers | 38c | 502.7$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.67 | 241 | 47.3%114 W · 127 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Celtics | 57c | 434.16$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.61 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed 76ers | 41c | 256.6$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.92 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66f3…9836backed Celtics | 60c | 241.67$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Celtics | 59c | 225.9$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.57 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…c3b9backed 76ers | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 275 | 47.6%131 W · 144 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b3…f97cbacked 76ers | 52c | 130$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Celtics | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,053 | 53.5%563 W · 490 L | -15.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4de…cb5cbacked Celtics | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -3.4wins | -0.49per pick | 63cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed 76ers | 41c | 72.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.33 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed 76ers | 49c | 61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 597 | 43.6%260 W · 337 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf931…f340backed 76ers | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.3wins | +0.30per pick | 52cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfb40…106cbacked 76ers | 51c | 54.9$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.9 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed 76ers | 46c | 51.43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.77 | 203 | 56.7%115 W · 88 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x861d…c6bfbacked 76ers | 41c | 48.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed 76ers | 42c | 26.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 474 | 48.7%231 W · 243 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked 76ers | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Celtics (-2.5)this page
- 76ers vs. Celtics76ers won
- 76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 227.5Over won
- 76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 228.5Over won
- 76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 229.5Over won
- Spread: 76ers (-1.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-1.5)76ers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.