La Liga · resolved market
Real Valladolid CF vs. Cádiz CF: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86cfae346dc51070b443982b01aeac74bc7909812dd98f5175777bf2d33899aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,292
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,167
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,292 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 52c | 4,438$2,308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,130.23 | 200 | 54%108 W · 92 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 43c | 3,781$1,608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,608.11 | 4,729 | 47.1%2,225 W · 2,504 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…30ccbacked Under | 49c | 3,159$1,542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,542.4 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 61c | 1,499$910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.71 | 3,444 | 43%1,482 W · 1,962 L | +31.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Under | 19c | 1,119$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.42 | 113 | 31%35 W · 78 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc443…359bbacked Over | 46c | 1,087$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.96 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1650…42f6backed Under | 7c | 1,007$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.47 | 93 | 36.6%34 W · 59 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Under | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 53 | 3.8%2 W · 51 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +82.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 56c | 831.95$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.88 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 58c | 744.42$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.99 | 186 | 56.5%105 W · 81 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec7…db02backed Under | 49c | 686.53$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 52c | 678.85$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.85 | 95 | 64.2%61 W · 34 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 40c | 540.03$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.52 | 1,418 | 45.6%646 W · 772 L | -10.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…0263backed Over | 74c | 485.85$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.32 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 56c | 408.97$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.97 | 223 | 57%127 W · 96 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 51c | 347.94$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.57 | 227 | 58.1%132 W · 95 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc629…5e51backed Over | 58c | 344.83$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.83 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 48c | 306.66$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.96 | 283 | 57.2%162 W · 121 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 53c | 279.88$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.48 | 1,651 | 43.9%724 W · 927 L | -21.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 48c | 276.4$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.35 | 357 | 59.4%212 W · 145 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 76c | 261.72$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.72 | 174 | 66.1%115 W · 59 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Over | 51c | 261.44$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.03 | 750 | 51.3%385 W · 365 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab8…e32fbacked Over | 63c | 251.9$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.2 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 21c | 249.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 1,081 | 50.6%547 W · 534 L | +11.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a1…ee48backed Under | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 57c | 191.25$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.89 | 890 | 50%445 W · 445 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf26f…8f93backed Under | 11c | 159.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 96 | 11.5%11 W · 85 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…860fbacked Over | 51c | 156.86$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.86 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6724…9592backed Over | 51c | 147.4$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.29 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 45c | 143.03$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.86 | 1,798 | 51.4%924 W · 874 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…a8edbacked Under | 49c | 142.86$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | -7.6wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8d19…bfdcbacked Under | 32c | 125.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 49c | 122.39$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.59 | 2,339 | 48.5%1,135 W · 1,204 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 68c | 121.37$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.32 | 1,018 | 53.1%541 W · 477 L | -24.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Under | 51c | 117.96$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.42 | 178 | 56.7%101 W · 77 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 46c | 108.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 342 | 52%178 W · 164 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…da9ebacked Over | 47c | 106.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.71 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +7.8wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 35c | 98.11$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 443 | 24.2%107 W · 336 L | -49.5wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Over | 12c | 96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.48 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +91%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4148…4397backed Over | 56c | 90.79$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.95 | 92 | 46.7%43 W · 49 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 49c | 84.97$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.61 | 1,559 | 51.6%804 W · 755 L | -9.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…30a8backed Over | 47c | 82.73$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.73 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Under | 38c | 76.32$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 84 | 39.3%33 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 43c | 71.4$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.61 | 411 | 47.9%197 W · 214 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 51c | 69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.19 | 224 | 55.8%125 W · 99 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82d2…fab9backed Over | 51c | 65.08$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 103 | 48.5%50 W · 53 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab7…0409backed Under | 23c | 54.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7f…4c60backed Over | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.28 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd69f…1cacbacked Over | 54c | 50.6$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 50c | 44.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1121…6604backed Over | 50c | 44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf330…44acbacked Under | 27c | 43.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1872…bcabbacked Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf02…3a63backed Over | 50c | 42.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.13 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56a2…57b8backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 35c | 38.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 791 | 33%261 W · 530 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 47c | 37.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 1,035 | 47.9%496 W · 539 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1feb…5d9abacked Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…2e3abacked Over | 52c | 25.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 48c | 25.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 284 | 46.5%132 W · 152 L | -16.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Over | 52c | 25.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 119 | 59.7%71 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8c…31c3backed Over | 52c | 24.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x990c…30dabacked Under | 53c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x550d…f1ffbacked Under | 53c | 23.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3787…5bfebacked Over | 47c | 23.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed Under | 55c | 20.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a05…7757backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 202 | 45.5%92 W · 110 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec55…baffbacked Under | 53c | 19.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacb…03b7backed Over | 73c | 16.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf84…d933backed Over | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Real Valladolid CF vs. Cádiz CF: O/U 2.5this page
- Real Valladolid CF vs. Cádiz CF: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Real Valladolid CF vs. Cádiz CF: O/U 1.5Over won
- Real Valladolid CF vs. Cádiz CF: O/U 3.5Under won
- Real Valladolid CF vs. Cádiz CF: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Cádiz CF (-1.5)Real Valladolid CF won
- Spread: Real Valladolid CF (-1.5)Real Valladolid CF won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.