NBA · resolved market
Spread: Pistons (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86db40b51a5f0ed7dde923e7988f3272330893ca20aae6aa0f058389aaa97511
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pistonsof Pistons, 76ers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,612
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,809
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,612 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6bd…270cbacked Pistons | 45c | 1,111$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.04 | 124 | 52.4%65 W · 59 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc1…ffeebacked 76ers | 57c | 883.45$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 369 | 43.4%160 W · 209 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked 76ers | 55c | 628$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.4 | 853 | 47.9%409 W · 444 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Pistons | 44c | 500$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed 76ers | 55c | 367.19$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.95 | 339 | 45.1%153 W · 186 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Pistons | 44c | 350$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.5 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Pistons | 35c | 312$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.92 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pistons | 41c | 261.45$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…d648backed 76ers | 59c | 254.24$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3764…e02abacked Pistons | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed 76ers | 45c | 181.82$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.82 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x222e…0d53backed 76ers | 71c | 172$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.12 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +110.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Pistons | 42c | 110.89$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.32 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Pistons | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d3…e601backed 76ers | 55c | 97.62$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.69 | 135 | 50.4%68 W · 67 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Pistons | 39c | 54.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.54 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf921…94dbbacked 76ers | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked 76ers | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 408 | 53.7%219 W · 189 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pistons (-6.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Pistons (-3.5)Pistons won
- 76ers vs. PistonsPistons won
- 76ers vs. Pistons: 1H MoneylinePistons won
- 76ers vs. Pistons: O/U 228.5Under won
- 76ers vs. Pistons: O/U 229.5Under won
- 76ers vs. Pistons: O/U 230.5Under won
- 76ers vs. Pistons: O/U 231.5Under won
- 76ers vs. Pistons: O/U 232.5Under won
- 76ers vs. Pistons: O/U 233.5Under won
- Spread: Pistons (-1.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-3.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-4.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-5.5)Pistons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.