NBA · resolved market
Spread: Pistons (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xadec65a2d543174524cd26284e15fe71ddd99128d734e9666e3e9bb390572b5b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pistonsof Pistons, 76ers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,708
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,560
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,708 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pistons | 47c | 4,705$2,203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,502.22 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae5…b896backed 76ers | 53c | 3,000$1,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,589.95 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…f62dbacked 76ers | 54c | 2,981$1,610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,610 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Pistons | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.39 | 271 | 58.3%158 W · 113 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5276…74ddbacked Pistons | 47c | 851.06$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.06 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe17…98e9backed 76ers | 53c | 404$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.12 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08dd…55b0backed 76ers | 51c | 391.73$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.78 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…e803backed 76ers | 51c | 383.82$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.75 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Pistons | 47c | 361$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.33 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pistons | 47c | 268$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.04 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5680…9305backed 76ers | 52c | 144.23$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8835…7d7ebacked Pistons | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc7…b89bbacked 76ers | 65c | 93.85$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Pistons | 35c | 88.85$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.75 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4627…7c23backed 76ers | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Pistons | 45c | 57.75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x170c…7fe3backed Pistons | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | -12.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed 76ers | 56c | 29.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pistons (-4.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Pistons (-3.5)Pistons won
- 76ers vs. PistonsPistons won
- 76ers vs. Pistons: 1H MoneylinePistons won
- 76ers vs. Pistons: O/U 228.5Under won
- 76ers vs. Pistons: O/U 229.5Under won
- 76ers vs. Pistons: O/U 230.5Under won
- 76ers vs. Pistons: O/U 231.5Under won
- 76ers vs. Pistons: O/U 232.5Under won
- 76ers vs. Pistons: O/U 233.5Under won
- Spread: Pistons (-1.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-3.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-5.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-6.5)Pistons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.