Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8703ff81b9423f5995307dcf060b88d1c8a7747e1403150d54e196943c5d2d57
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,984
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,291
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,984 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 59c | 560.52$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.93 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 59c | 236.09$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.12 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 39c | 191.5$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.5 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 33c | 171.48$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.74 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 58c | 169.38$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.49 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed Yes | 42c | 166.88$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.84 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 41c | 144.59$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.39 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 60c | 143.52$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.81 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 39c | 136.71$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.89 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 40c | 132.87$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.37 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 60c | 130.07$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.51 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 39c | 124.25$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.87 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 58c | 123.83$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.01 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf240…781fbacked Yes | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 61c | 117.96$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.02 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed Yes | 40c | 101$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 40c | 100.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.48 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 41c | 95.8$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.28 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x896e…b02abacked Yes | 40c | 93.97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.69 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 40c | 78.39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 60c | 78.25$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.07 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…206dbacked No | 70c | 63.72$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 55cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 62c | 62.83$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.09 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 38c | 62.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 40c | 60.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff3…fab6backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9388…ad42backed No | 50c | 56.68$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.33 | 139 | 59.7%83 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 62c | 56.03$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.03 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked Yes | 39c | 54.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 63c | 54.09$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.85 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes | 41c | 52.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 78c | 48$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x880a…308ebacked Yes | 41c | 43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 33c | 42.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 40c | 42.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 40c | 39.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 38c | 39.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…e06fbacked Yes | 37c | 36.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 43c | 35.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb430…efc9backed Yes | 42c | 33.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 61c | 33.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 67c | 32.46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd46…e514backed No | 64c | 32.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -5.7wins | -0.23per pick | 55cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 31.73$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 32c | 31.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 31.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed Yes | 40c | 30.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x958e…1ef9backed Yes | 38c | 30.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.43per pick | 63cpaid | -74%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 61c | 30.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 40c | 29.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef0…6392backed Yes | 39c | 28.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe399…6bd7backed Yes | 41c | 27.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 40c | 25.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 40c | 25.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed No | 59c | 24.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 67c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 59c | 20.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 69c | 19.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 59c | 18.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39f3…74c9backed No | 62c | 16.47$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.