Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x185db77a084eebf9eb273d2cc7d8bc1ccb1769a4d8f1802dc1f64af20dd51a30
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,637
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,022
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,637 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 35c | 1,175$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$766.81 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 64c | 630.36$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.66 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 67c | 249.26$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.29 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 61c | 231.17$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.84 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 66c | 226.32$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.67 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 65c | 168$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.2 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 31c | 146.67$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.67 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 144.21$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.03 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fad…1a08backed Yes | 38c | 130.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.49 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4127…a8cebacked Yes | 40c | 129.62$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.62 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 34c | 128.78$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.1 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 36c | 120$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.8 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 37c | 109.07$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.23 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 47c | 101.27$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.27 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9e…2264backed Yes | 31c | 84.84$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.54 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 61c | 83.65$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.02 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7130…d269backed Yes | 38c | 82.88$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 38c | 82.87$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.38 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 65c | 77.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.47 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe5…91aabacked No | 65c | 77.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 69c | 77.08$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.4 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 69c | 76.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 68c | 76.07$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.87 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 34c | 71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.86 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 69.62$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.77 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 68.05$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.26 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 30c | 66.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.29 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 66c | 65.04$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.93 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 65c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.28 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 33c | 55.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.28 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 64c | 55.42$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 49c | 54.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84e3…3dfdbacked No | 69c | 48.38$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 148 | 78.4%116 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 80c | 47.53$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 67c | 43.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 37c | 42.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.76 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 41.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 63c | 39.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 34c | 35.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7275…0225backed No | 65c | 33.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 64c | 32.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39f3…74c9backed Yes | 31c | 32.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.49 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 58c | 31.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 31.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 40c | 31.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed Yes | 38c | 30.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked Yes | 37c | 30.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 66c | 30.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 64c | 28.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 27.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1e…862ebacked No | 64c | 25.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb8…7809backed No | 66c | 23.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde9a…8193backed No | 66c | 22.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed No | 61c | 22.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a35…bdc6backed No | 65c | 21.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…2a65backed No | 66c | 21.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -15.2wins | -0.27per pick | 51cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 29-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7a…8465backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 70c | 17.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 64c | 17.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 71c | 16.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.