Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8712868f407766a036da34d9923371e8861903ce9dbcabde6cf7493cdc8ee256
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,937
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,510
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,937 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa943…f7d2backed Yes | 38c | 284.62$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.43 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 62c | 184.73$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.1 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 26c | 141.4$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.09 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 26c | 130.25$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.58 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 129.3$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.61 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 25c | 107.72$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 73c | 105$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 29c | 101.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 27c | 99.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 69c | 96.71$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 26c | 96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 23c | 93.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 91.15$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.55 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 27c | 89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 25c | 80.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 24c | 74.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 24c | 73.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 39c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 68c | 56.65$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc29…66b4backed No | 74c | 56$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 73c | 55.27$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 54.88$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa955…4b3dbacked Yes | 28c | 52.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd2…87c9backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb2…ad6fbacked Yes | 24c | 42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 163 | 24.5%40 W · 123 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 71c | 41.05$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 76c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4d…01c3backed Yes | 40c | 33.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed No | 73c | 33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe88e…03e8backed No | 70c | 32.52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6f…aa43backed No | 71c | 31.62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 73c | 28.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 72c | 28.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc3e…cefdbacked No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 56 | 67.9%38 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 73c | 19.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 72c | 18.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 71c | 17.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 80c | 16.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54b9…1eebbacked No | 69c | 16.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +3.8wins | +0.24per pick | 64cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7756…c1e1backed No | 71c | 15.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.2wins | -0.32per pick | 62cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd923…3ae7backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 71cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 25?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.