TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 25?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,868
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,313

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,868 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x46f1…701fbacked No50c860.77$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.052,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0947…9e92backed Yes58c586.71$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.4758152%302 W · 279 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ae0…7483backed Yes56c389.75$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.0810539%41 W · 64 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed No46c321.73$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1481,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes61c300$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.674,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No51c274.44$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.932,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes52c219.76$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.8510,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes41c195.77$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.551,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No37c184.73$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.664,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No36c179.39$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.3612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No41c170.82$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.724,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5042…f296backed Yes63c157$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.099744.3%43 W · 54 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes64c155.95$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.9724542.9%105 W · 140 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebb1…e7afbacked No22c155.03$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.7857545%259 W · 316 L+26.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9551…ca44backed Yes60c150$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.515950.3%80 W · 79 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No37c135.93$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.342,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f4a…f61bbacked No49c135.29$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.8554547.7%260 W · 285 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No45c129.49$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.665,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No39c118.94$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.723,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed No45c118.52$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.071,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No46c113.3$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.941,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes60c108.27$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.447,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked Yes63c105.25$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.381,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes58c102.13$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.121,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bb1…6644backed Yes50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5013540%54 W · 81 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3b2…d3d9backed Yes55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes62c97.29$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.2961249.5%303 W · 309 L+30.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No45c97$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.659,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No37c96.71$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.781,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed No48c96.3$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.2218043.3%78 W · 102 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes64c95$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.21,05434.9%368 W · 686 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes63c90$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.33,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaac4…efa0backed No43c88.88$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.539038.9%35 W · 55 L-7.0wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-25.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes66c87.86$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.871,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed Yes47c80.31$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.831,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No40c78$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.186,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf713…86fdbacked No37c77.34$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.624645.7%21 W · 25 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-20.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7eb5…9400backed No44c74.22$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3152758.8%310 W · 217 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed No52c67.41$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.821,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No47c65.61$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.81,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No23c65$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.754,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes56c64.63$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.4449551.9%257 W · 238 L-25.1wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3ae8…d952backed Yes62c60$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.75366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+48.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No49c59.99$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4680050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34b0…05a6backed No44c57.12$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.133253.1%17 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes67c57.04$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.721964.8%142 W · 77 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd93e…7434backed No37c55.87$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6713337.6%50 W · 83 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x759d…cc80backed No44c55.23$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1877851.9%404 W · 374 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa955…4b3dbacked Yes65c50.5$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.5540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-16.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes63c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.570148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc743…4cb7backed Yes63c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.59848%47 W · 51 L-4.6wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x98ad…5f89backed Yes55c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.53655.6%20 W · 16 L+3.4wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+15.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4125…868cbacked No32c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168240.2%33 W · 49 L-7.1wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-18.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes45c44$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.246148.8%225 W · 236 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No46c40.7$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.591,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes66c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.686952.7%458 W · 411 L-3.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb53…fde7backed Yes63c40$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.825954.1%140 W · 119 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5157…fdbcbacked No32c39.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.853353.1%283 W · 250 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf722…4e1ebacked No34c37.35$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.72948.3%14 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes46c36.48$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.8552446.2%242 W · 282 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15a1…5ef3backed Yes74c36.45$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.452748.1%13 W · 14 L-4.1wins-0.15per pick63cpaid-30.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes69c35.82$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.0720662.1%128 W · 78 L-14.0wins-0.07per pick69cpaid-13.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No44c35.47$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.782,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No42c35$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.72,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No40c35$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1453855%296 W · 242 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes66c35$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.957747%271 W · 306 L+40.0wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+16.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9f2a…3706backed No41c32.46$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3834853.4%186 W · 162 L-19.2wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-8.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No46c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.83,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd46e…11f4backed Yes57c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.93953.8%21 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a09…9b7fbacked No47c29$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6315850.6%80 W · 78 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed Yes42c26.91$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.52,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes54c25$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.5520842.8%89 W · 119 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed Yes43c25$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.252,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf7c…b00dbacked Yes67c23.8$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.8578663.6%500 W · 286 L-0.3wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes51c23.48$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.512,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked Yes55c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$948743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ff6…e4fbbacked Yes68c18.08$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.7965353.4%349 W · 304 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe550…6f6ebacked Yes62c16.86$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.4114161.7%87 W · 54 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f64…9600backed Yes65c16$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.610758.9%63 W · 44 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes68c15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.86,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd923…3ae7backed Yes68c15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.81181.8%9 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick71cpaid+12.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.