Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8741ab32f57284946242bd92dcdb998f14c9b9b2c42237897fc91d339d0e5895
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,483
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,089
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,483 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2733…5ae8backed Yes | 28c | 585.24$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.83 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 70c | 236.19$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.8 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 34c | 200.01$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.06 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 197.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.04 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 20c | 164.17$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.74 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecd…9b27backed Yes | 30c | 161.44$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.98 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 15c | 161.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 159$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.75 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 134.3$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.82 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 72c | 132$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 67c | 112.33$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.33 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 69c | 107.46$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.74 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 100.5$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 95.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed No | 71c | 95.05$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 35c | 91$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 31c | 85.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…a3ddbacked Yes | 30c | 85.42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 69c | 84.54$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 30c | 77.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 22c | 74.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 34c | 70.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 69c | 70$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 72c | 68.13$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 69c | 62.37$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 61.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 30c | 56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 66c | 51$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 72c | 50.77$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…4cdebacked No | 71c | 50.12$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 86 | 61.6%53 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 70c | 47.47$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 68c | 46.95$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x002a…61b7backed Yes | 34c | 44.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed No | 75c | 42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 31c | 41.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 29c | 41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 66c | 40.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 70c | 40.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…bdf5backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1aa…7429backed Yes | 27c | 39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 70c | 38.36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 29c | 36.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 70c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 67c | 34.16$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 72c | 33.94$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…7a24backed No | 70c | 28.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 58 | 69%40 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 69c | 28.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 65c | 26.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked No | 68c | 25.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 222 | 65.8%146 W · 76 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 67c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 70c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 69c | 21.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2401…0753backed No | 70c | 21.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…bbeabacked No | 72c | 20.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 70c | 17.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…8c1bbacked No | 70c | 17.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 120 | 70.8%85 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 66c | 15.53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3530…d99abacked No | 66c | 15.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 66cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5353…293cbacked No | 68c | 14.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 86°F or higher on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.