Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on August 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x874594aaded02215bcc82ce42f273a3f0fe9196abe92400dfe70fd2d4edf12c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,039
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,365
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,039 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 17c | 744.81$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.51 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dca…ebaabacked Yes | 19c | 523.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 21c | 438.55$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.31 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 25c | 209$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 16c | 185.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 17c | 181.65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 75c | 157$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.93 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba9d…46efbacked No | 70c | 99.73$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.73 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 79c | 97.05$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 19c | 81.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 18c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47ac…7284backed Yes | 14c | 72.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -70%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 76c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 69.76$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 76c | 63.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7240…9906backed Yes | 30c | 56.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 78c | 54.45$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 79c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 77c | 41.17$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 29c | 34.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 77c | 32.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x153b…654cbacked No | 79c | 28.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 23.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 78c | 20.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 75c | 20.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x599f…3317backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 125 | 78.4%98 W · 27 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6809…eae7backed No | 73c | 17.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 77c | 13.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 79c | 12.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.69 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on August 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on August 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C or higher on August 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.