Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on August 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa72e0576b49d68825ac10bbb4437a9d4d9b62bae63e04f772219440056b10f39
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,282
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,127
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,282 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xba9d…46efbacked Yes | 12c | 2,086$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 33c | 366.09$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.61 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 71c | 285.67$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 30c | 231.02$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd73…f7adbacked No | 67c | 198.79$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 73c | 193.65$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.93 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 67c | 167.54$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 26c | 158.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…357fbacked No | 75c | 149$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 73c | 148.41$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.68 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 143.97$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.34 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dca…ebaabacked No | 71c | 141.35$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.35 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 73c | 117.74$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.74 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 79c | 116.94$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.12 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 71c | 113.1$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.81 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1a…e20abacked Yes | 21c | 104.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 14c | 102$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 33c | 102$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.61 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f89…5619backed Yes | 13c | 93.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 20c | 85.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 68c | 85$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.55 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 84$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…b8debacked Yes | 26c | 79.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 75.05$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 35c | 69.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 26c | 67.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 30c | 64.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 64$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 21c | 62.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e40…2e56backed No | 80c | 61$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked No | 67c | 52.89$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 59 | 69.5%41 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47ac…7284backed Yes | 23c | 52.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -70%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa30e…cf53backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 32cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 76c | 44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 66c | 37.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 74c | 35.86$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 75c | 34.46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa47e…261cbacked No | 75c | 32.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 74cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 63c | 32.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 32.22$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 36c | 32.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 78c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 76c | 31.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…ce84backed No | 65c | 30.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 82 | 61%50 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d64…e3fdbacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 79c | 29.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 74c | 24.82$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 67c | 24.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 69c | 22.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 70c | 20.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ec…138fbacked No | 80c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -18.6wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 68c | 17.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 67c | 17.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.59 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 64c | 16.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…4d6dbacked No | 72c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 98 | 68.4%67 W · 31 L | +11.2wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 67c | 14.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 73c | 14.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on August 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on August 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C or higher on August 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.