Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Tidebound - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x874996b3ed9ec1ee941643ce083b59f00ecd740b0c85b775ff0fb9031017ad8d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tundra Esportsof Tundra Esports, Team Tidebound
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,078
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,622
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,078 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4fe9…706abacked Team Tidebound | 42c | 9,096$3,799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,799.49 | 158 | 52.5%83 W · 75 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Tundra Esports | 58c | 5,428$3,162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,265.71 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31b5…6128backed Tundra Esports | 68c | 3,235$2,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,050.23 | 180 | 75%135 W · 45 L | +18.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Team Tidebound | 30c | 3,160$962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$961.94 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…68d2backed Tundra Esports | 59c | 1,635$958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.7 | 179 | 50.3%90 W · 89 L | +14.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Tundra Esports | 69c | 1,288$889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.39 | 610 | 57.9%353 W · 257 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed Team Tidebound | 16c | 1,179$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.75 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1448…9b9cbacked Tundra Esports | 75c | 1,052$789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.02 | 132 | 62.9%83 W · 49 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Tundra Esports | 65c | 769.23$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.23 | 234 | 65%152 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Team Tidebound | 13c | 588.19$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.04 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf092…4ebabacked Tundra Esports | 50c | 409.74$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.87 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe534…57f3backed Team Tidebound | 20c | 407.65$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…ca01backed Team Tidebound | 9c | 400$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Tundra Esports | 68c | 381.38$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.7 | 80 | 66.3%53 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a37…869bbacked Tundra Esports | 68c | 300$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8052…1124backed Team Tidebound | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 171 | 46.8%80 W · 91 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb027…888fbacked Team Tidebound | 39c | 255.57$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.84 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -4.3wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x758f…dfb7backed Tundra Esports | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 346 | 67.9%235 W · 111 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked Tundra Esports | 62c | 149.99$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.5 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…b518backed Tundra Esports | 68c | 149.51$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.51 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd855…c823backed Tundra Esports | 69c | 133.33$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.33 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a3…9a02backed Team Tidebound | 47c | 128.55$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.28 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d60…be72backed Tundra Esports | 68c | 126.04$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.04 | 199 | 49.2%98 W · 101 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2477…700ebacked Tundra Esports | 64c | 110$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe99e…0084backed Team Tidebound | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 876 | 45.7%400 W · 476 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x632f…205cbacked Tundra Esports | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e94…4186backed Team Tidebound | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7600…4478backed Tundra Esports | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Tundra Esports | 63c | 98.05$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.68 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad2…6fe3backed Team Tidebound | 23c | 75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcca…64f6backed Team Tidebound | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9a…28cebacked Tundra Esports | 66c | 30.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffc…8967backed Tundra Esports | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 220 | 33.6%74 W · 146 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…c597backed Tundra Esports | 80c | 20.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20a5…de1bbacked Tundra Esports | 70c | 14.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Tidebound - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Tidebound (BO3)Tundra Esports won
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Tidebound - Game 2 WinnerTundra Esports won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.