MLB · resolved market
Cubs vs. Pirates
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87622d47d577b899b47c01105ac43f372a65329cca8f9b1bd2f6f5c3197d4543
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Piratesof Cubs, Pirates
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,147
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,100
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,147 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Cubs | 34c | 7,249$2,463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,463.23 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Pirates | 50c | 4,144$2,072 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,072 | 508 | 52.6%267 W · 241 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Pirates | 38c | 2,485$951 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,533.99 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Pirates | 78c | 1,489$1,167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.53 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Pirates | 42c | 1,422$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$817.8 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Cubs | 62c | 1,281$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Pirates | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 219 | 41.1%90 W · 129 L | -19.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Pirates | 57c | 850$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.5 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Pirates | 39c | 735.87$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.82 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5287…09bdbacked Pirates | 40c | 700$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Cubs | 20c | 690$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x773c…cf18backed Cubs | 61c | 615$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.15 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…ddfabacked Cubs | 60c | 612$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.2 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Pirates | 38c | 363.06$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.1 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05a5…f9e2backed Cubs | 62c | 362.9$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe22…cd4ebacked Cubs | 62c | 337.1$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 48cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Pirates | 39c | 304$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.44 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Cubs | 29c | 297.82$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.14 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Cubs | 60c | 250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 927 | 54.9%509 W · 418 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89dc…e209backed Cubs | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -5.8wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Pirates | 38c | 199.74$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.84 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1af…d23bbacked Cubs | 60c | 197$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.2 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Cubs | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Cubs | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Cubs | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f0…d9a9backed Cubs | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Cubs | 60c | 98$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed Cubs | 59c | 80.07$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.24 | 511 | 51.7%264 W · 247 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Pirates | 39c | 76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.36 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Cubs | 60c | 58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Cubs | 60c | 53.83$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85f3…9ca0backed Pirates | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf391…73c3backed Pirates | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 295 | 52.2%154 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e17…e4d4backed Cubs | 62c | 47.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.63 | 160 | 55.6%89 W · 71 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Pirates | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Cubs | 62c | 33.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 342 | 64.3%220 W · 122 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Cubs | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd10a…91e9backed Cubs | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 119 | 53.8%64 W · 55 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c77…bde7backed Pirates | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Cubs | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…d681backed Cubs | 63c | 19.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 743 | 56.9%423 W · 320 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…f52abacked Cubs | 61c | 16.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.