Australian A League · resolved market
Melbourne Victory FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87b0f5beb04180138c32f4673cd7a44744a19d21313c4cf1bced5a278a6948b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,171
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,171 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 10c | 2,629$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.98 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b6f…d151backed Under | 22c | 1,012$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb056…40e1backed Over | 78c | 1,012$789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Under | 14c | 697.1$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.69 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe710…d907backed Over | 78c | 198.24$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0de2…9e62backed Under | 22c | 198.24$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 15c | 142.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 147 | 55.1%81 W · 66 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 17c | 124.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 132 | 43.2%57 W · 75 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66f1…d9cebacked Under | 18c | 114$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 16c | 103.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 16c | 82.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 119 | 40.3%48 W · 71 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Melbourne Victory FC (-1.5)Melbourne Victory FC won
- Spread: Melbourne Victory FC (-2.5)Melbourne Victory FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.