Australian A League · resolved market
Spread: Melbourne Victory FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5258d71f5795425e884b265ef1919e855d4f19731b631f0a4ddcd5c0ab81ef81
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Melbourne Victory FCof Melbourne Victory FC, Central Coast Mariners FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,409
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,409 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Melbourne Victory FC | 46c | 5,000$2,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,699.94 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +12.6wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Central Coast Mariners FC | 54c | 1,900$1,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,026 | 193 | 45.1%87 W · 106 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Central Coast Mariners FC | 55c | 1,820$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Central Coast Mariners FC | 55c | 1,415$777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$777.14 | 147 | 55.1%81 W · 66 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x791e…9bdabacked Melbourne Victory FC | 48c | 1,050$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.21 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +113.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb61f…976abacked Central Coast Mariners FC | 72c | 968.14$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Central Coast Mariners FC | 52c | 640.21$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.91 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…d26cbacked Melbourne Victory FC | 17c | 235.29$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.29 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ac…f3babacked Melbourne Victory FC | 43c | 215.82$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.69 | 25 | 88%22 W · 3 L | +7.3wins | +0.29per pick | 59cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Melbourne Victory FC | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Central Coast Mariners FC | 55c | 168.1$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.26 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Melbourne Victory FC | 22c | 152.69$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.76 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Melbourne Victory FC | 44c | 152.27$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.27 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x394c…158cbacked Central Coast Mariners FC | 78c | 150.02$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bea…c4b2backed Central Coast Mariners FC | 73c | 147.97$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.02 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 47cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Melbourne Victory FC | 48c | 111.49$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.88 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Melbourne Victory FC | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc45…2957backed Central Coast Mariners FC | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…31f3backed Melbourne Victory FC | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.89 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Central Coast Mariners FC | 55c | 79.7$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.04 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Central Coast Mariners FC | 67c | 58.92$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.31 | 149 | 51%76 W · 73 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Melbourne Victory FC | 44c | 58$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.48 | 437 | 48.3%211 W · 226 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Melbourne Victory FC | 49c | 53.06$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6d…3070backed Melbourne Victory FC | 35c | 43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.17 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Central Coast Mariners FC | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Melbourne Victory FC | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Melbourne Victory FC | 45c | 29.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Melbourne Victory FC | 44c | 27.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 324 | 53.1%172 W · 152 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…642dbacked Central Coast Mariners FC | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Central Coast Mariners FC | 78c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Central Coast Mariners FC | 60c | 19.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Melbourne Victory FC (-1.5)this page
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Melbourne Victory FC (-2.5)Melbourne Victory FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.