Australian A League · resolved market
Melbourne Victory FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9712ea742d72bcdf5096913420db46a2b2772afad53a56243b1849484c7f6917
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,698
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,698 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa28d…d5ccbacked Over | 35c | 3,710$1,298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,411.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 65c | 3,359$2,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,183.41 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 16c | 2,242$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,881.06 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +12.6wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 80c | 2,063$1,647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,646.55 | 235 | 51.5%121 W · 114 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Under | 79c | 1,652$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 14c | 1,321$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,136.43 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Over | 25c | 1,249$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$937.64 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaac8…b6f1backed Under | 78c | 1,245$973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$973.02 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 60cpaid | -26%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…97d5backed Under | 73c | 1,012$734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 73c | 951.39$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.14 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 33c | 735.47$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.27 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d1…06fbbacked Under | 75c | 684.81$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaec1…2778backed Over | 25c | 684.81$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed Over | 4c | 646.81$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.41 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +198.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 24c | 599.98$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.98 | 86 | 25.6%22 W · 64 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 72c | 585.57$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.89 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ac…f3babacked Over | 16c | 558.3$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.75 | 25 | 88%22 W · 3 L | +7.3wins | +0.29per pick | 59cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 39c | 513.72$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.72 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Over | 24c | 499.98$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.99 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f75…7233backed Over | 26c | 451.02$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0215…6080backed Under | 74c | 451.02$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 31c | 403.17$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.67 | 106 | 33%35 W · 71 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Over | 35c | 377.49$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.77 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab0…ddd0backed Under | 65c | 309.17$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.43per pick | 63cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbec3…22b6backed Over | 33c | 300.44$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.44 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 30c | 275.22$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.32 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +8.0wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 34c | 265.9$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.46 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2486…3f73backed Under | 74c | 264.98$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68e6…a350backed Over | 26c | 264.98$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 29c | 255.57$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.36 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +8.1wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 22c | 248.98$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.01 | 147 | 55.1%81 W · 66 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x002e…af86backed Under | 4c | 228.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Under | 76c | 222.49$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 24c | 196.75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.5 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +9.2wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…75f1backed Under | 14c | 164.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Over | 16c | 160.68$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.19 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +10.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 23c | 159.09$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.29 | 108 | 39.8%43 W · 65 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…f5ecbacked Under | 77c | 152.19$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.19 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 68cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 61c | 150$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.5 | 135 | 40.7%55 W · 80 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe2…5981backed Under | 76c | 146.88$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.63 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e4…15eebacked Over | 8c | 144.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +525%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d2…090fbacked Over | 72c | 137$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.7 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +4.1wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xff7e…8a0fbacked Under | 72c | 132.36$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2605…2b17backed Under | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 66cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce72…cbefbacked Under | 79c | 126.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 33c | 125.81$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 149 | 51%76 W · 73 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 22c | 124.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.49 | 132 | 43.2%57 W · 75 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Under | 76c | 106.72$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.11 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Over | 71c | 103.55$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +6.3wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 62c | 94.98$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.96 | 119 | 40.3%48 W · 71 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Under | 64c | 93.75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 37c | 91$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.33 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1160…b054backed Over | 39c | 75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.75 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +4.4wins | +0.36per pick | 55cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 23c | 72.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.44 | 193 | 45.1%87 W · 106 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed Under | 72c | 66.26$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.71 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8a…8775backed Under | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41ad…8dddbacked Over | 34c | 56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.79 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7b…9ab9backed Under | 71c | 53.31$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7569…ac76backed Under | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 61c | 49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x034e…f79dbacked Over | 31c | 47.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +59%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6598…5f36backed Over | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +149.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d12…a4c4backed Over | 73c | 41.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…2037backed Under | 78c | 39.44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0f…50bebacked Under | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd354…ff2fbacked Under | 67c | 37.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Under | 58c | 32.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e72…54f0backed Under | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9381…9ae2backed Under | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb0…3182backed Under | 66c | 28.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 76c | 28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbac…435fbacked Under | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Under | 77c | 21.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Under | 76c | 17.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81b0…6592backed Under | 72c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Melbourne Victory FC (-1.5)Melbourne Victory FC won
- Spread: Melbourne Victory FC (-2.5)Melbourne Victory FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.