Australian A League · resolved market
Melbourne Victory FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4848f476c08374267170a7d28f5044012bff57978acbc4b94479ebc17de181dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,282
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,282 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7879…3653backed Over | 60c | 5,000$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 38c | 2,984$1,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,129.78 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 40c | 2,376$947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$947.44 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 60c | 1,360$820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.61 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 39c | 1,335$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.14 | 309 | 54.7%169 W · 140 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed Under | 3c | 780.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +198.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 33c | 451.14$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.05 | 147 | 55.1%81 W · 66 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Under | 34c | 393$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.62 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9663…5b70backed Over | 66c | 368$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.51 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Under | 40c | 350$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +4.2wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked Over | 66c | 347$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.98 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 39c | 313.86$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.17 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ed…6fb8backed Over | 67c | 299.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.14 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 38c | 265.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.74 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Under | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…0263backed Over | 62c | 201.66$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.63 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 62c | 174.32$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.24 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +12.6wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc629…5e51backed Over | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…1d66backed Under | 23c | 160.68$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1669…1363backed Over | 64c | 156.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.33 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3248…8ba9backed Over | 69c | 150.97$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed Under | 34c | 125$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 36c | 124.75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.96 | 132 | 43.2%57 W · 75 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1155…2315backed Over | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 108 | 39.8%43 W · 65 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Under | 40c | 88.52$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.16 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1703…1ab4backed Over | 63c | 87.3$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 36c | 85$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 119 | 40.3%48 W · 71 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Under | 34c | 83.65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe2…5981backed Over | 74c | 82.64$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d4…125ebacked Over | 66c | 82.14$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 61c | 70$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.21 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +8.1wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 29c | 65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…fae9backed Over | 57c | 64.88$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -6.0wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Under | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aef…f8dfbacked Over | 55c | 63.94$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Over | 62c | 62.95$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.92 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +10.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0e72…54f0backed Under | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe013…1ddcbacked Under | 36c | 51.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d12…a4c4backed Over | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c5f…dfc9backed Over | 64c | 50.7$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2374…a426backed Over | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f34…ed6abacked Over | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Under | 36c | 49.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 39c | 42.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 62c | 35.79$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +9.2wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc003…47a8backed Under | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Under | 39c | 32.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 36c | 31.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 324 | 53.1%172 W · 152 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4929…b9f9backed Over | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 51cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff0…271bbacked Over | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.38per pick | 72cpaid | -55%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…7637backed Over | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Melbourne Victory FC (-1.5)Melbourne Victory FC won
- Spread: Melbourne Victory FC (-2.5)Melbourne Victory FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.