NHL · resolved market
Sabres vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87b8fd92bd80347e7e0e4be66b53f7f0402329d8ee8461249974dc727a7e50a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,345
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,019
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,345 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4874…7123backed Over | 46c | 990.74$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.74 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.9wins | -0.32per pick | 49cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1c…2b46backed Under | 54c | 990.74$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.74 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.25per pick | 52cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3d…4ab1backed Under | 54c | 966.67$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.67 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc030…7372backed Over | 46c | 966.67$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.67 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 45c | 685.04$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.09 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ed…7a01backed Over | 46c | 650$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2c…49a2backed Under | 54c | 650$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd2…48e6backed Under | 55c | 601.31$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Over | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 338 | 37.9%128 W · 210 L | -14.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Under | 55c | 374.85$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.68 | 412 | 46.4%191 W · 221 L | -24.5wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2567…2371backed Under | 55c | 251.09$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.99 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 45c | 207.8$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.51 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f38…5c66backed Over | 47c | 114.87$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05fe…022ebacked Under | 55c | 111.4$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.13 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86d8…b853backed Under | 54c | 110$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb281…f47ebacked Over | 46c | 110$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ead…3381backed Under | 55c | 104.91$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.21 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb315…31b3backed Over | 47c | 101.91$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e2…9710backed Under | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad2…71f8backed Under | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 122 | 50.8%62 W · 60 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Under | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 629 | 44%277 W · 352 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9edc…b088backed Over | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 56c | 22.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 405 | 50.9%206 W · 199 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sabres vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5this page
- Sabres vs. CanadiensCanadiens won
- Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)Canadiens won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.