Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: Twisted Minds Orchid vs FOKUS Sakura - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87b96953c376e908461a158b04ff56324d13d155e5a5a275adfb52f5c2e1aae2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Twisted Minds Orchidof Twisted Minds Orchid, FOKUS Sakura
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,290
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,685
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,290 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed FOKUS Sakura | 50c | 1,165$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.45 | 1,746 | 46.2%806 W · 940 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed FOKUS Sakura | 43c | 537.23$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 443 | 42%186 W · 257 L | -22.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed FOKUS Sakura | 28c | 424.59$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.56 | 238 | 36.1%86 W · 152 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa474…32cbbacked Twisted Minds Orchid | 46c | 424.56$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.67 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked FOKUS Sakura | 41c | 412.59$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.29 | 1,358 | 39%530 W · 828 L | -57.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x475f…82d7backed Twisted Minds Orchid | 69c | 385.07$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.37 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b5a…a421backed FOKUS Sakura | 52c | 384.77$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c90…5b3ebacked Twisted Minds Orchid | 36c | 334.2$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.24 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked FOKUS Sakura | 40c | 295.38$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.98 | 240 | 32.1%77 W · 163 L | -18.7wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb75b…e377backed Twisted Minds Orchid | 65c | 294.4$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.76 | 113 | 54%61 W · 52 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b73…02c0backed Twisted Minds Orchid | 63c | 261.26$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.67 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa63f…b685backed Twisted Minds Orchid | 40c | 251.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.84 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked FOKUS Sakura | 13c | 242.94$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.02 | 407 | 31.7%129 W · 278 L | -13.1wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1186…0355backed Twisted Minds Orchid | 67c | 215$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.22 | 34 | 85.3%29 W · 5 L | +10.4wins | +0.30per pick | 55cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x57d9…fa69backed FOKUS Sakura | 63c | 200.75$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.47 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked FOKUS Sakura | 52c | 186.05$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.18 | 1,608 | 45.2%727 W · 881 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked FOKUS Sakura | 48c | 141$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.27 | 962 | 45.1%434 W · 528 L | -18.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25d5…11fcbacked Twisted Minds Orchid | 55c | 133$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.05 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa5…05bbbacked FOKUS Sakura | 47c | 127.41$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.39 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.3wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd75a…d264backed Twisted Minds Orchid | 34c | 123.84$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.73 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | -5.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Twisted Minds Orchid | 41c | 123.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.34 | 1,247 | 49.6%619 W · 628 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked FOKUS Sakura | 48c | 112.01$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.71 | 1,601 | 37.5%600 W · 1,001 L | -75.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Twisted Minds Orchid | 34c | 101.05$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.1 | 930 | 49.4%459 W · 471 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Twisted Minds Orchid | 50c | 100.88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.88 | 1,417 | 51.3%727 W · 690 L | +49.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked FOKUS Sakura | 43c | 87.67$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.79 | 907 | 33.1%300 W · 607 L | -89.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x95e9…67b6backed FOKUS Sakura | 55c | 86.76$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.92 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92df…7a08backed Twisted Minds Orchid | 60c | 83.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.26 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Twisted Minds Orchid | 37c | 75.86$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.47 | 421 | 40.4%170 W · 251 L | -26.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab3…3044backed FOKUS Sakura | 46c | 68.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.46 | 463 | 47.1%218 W · 245 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4419…fcf4backed FOKUS Sakura | 77c | 63.5$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.9 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed FOKUS Sakura | 47c | 51.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 305 | 44.3%135 W · 170 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xade6…c465backed Twisted Minds Orchid | 61c | 41.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 653 | 47.3%309 W · 344 L | -18.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…157cbacked Twisted Minds Orchid | 51c | 35.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Twisted Minds Orchid | 57c | 34.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 571 | 51%291 W · 280 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked FOKUS Sakura | 42c | 31.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 700 | 43.7%306 W · 394 L | -13.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07e4…186ebacked FOKUS Sakura | 64c | 31.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.41per pick | 61cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x308f…e152backed Twisted Minds Orchid | 62c | 26.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked FOKUS Sakura | 46c | 25.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 183 | 3.3%6 W · 177 L | -73.1wins | -0.40per pick | 43cpaid | -93.1%equal weight | 11-0.35 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed FOKUS Sakura | 45c | 24.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 746 | 42.8%319 W · 427 L | -27.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…a418backed Twisted Minds Orchid | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valorant: Twisted Minds Orchid vs FOKUS Sakura - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Valorant: Twisted Minds Orchid vs FOKUS Sakura (BO3) - VCT Game Changers EMEA Group StageTwisted Minds Orchid won
- Valorant: Twisted Minds Orchid vs FOKUS Sakura - Map 1 WinnerTwisted Minds Orchid won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.