Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SG Dynamo Dresden win on 2026-05-02?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87cecf2e038ab27d2e29d070a44ee6208b4e266881403511ead895a394710cb5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,807
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,475
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,807 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 20c | 3,910$774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$774.18 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31c1…7047backed No | 55c | 1,818$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 68c | 817.92$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.6 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38f1…9ff1backed Yes | 57c | 666$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.05 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x660d…56acbacked Yes | 60c | 638.99$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.99 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 5c | 419.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 5c | 412.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 82 | 24.4%20 W · 62 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…da9ebacked No | 43c | 346.51$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 40c | 306.87$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.75 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 78c | 288.88$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.94 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x369a…09a5backed Yes | 57c | 280$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed No | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 240 | 50.4%121 W · 119 L | +18.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 49c | 171.35$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.13 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a47…cfbbbacked Yes | 57c | 166.01$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.01 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6158…81bcbacked No | 40c | 120$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -5.5wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 41c | 112.89$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.85 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 60c | 110$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 45c | 105.49$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed No | 42c | 99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.58 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 50c | 95.39$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.39 | 204 | 36.3%74 W · 130 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5428…e46abacked Yes | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 54c | 87.72$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.49 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked No | 46c | 65.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd751…0fedbacked No | 40c | 63.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c22…0c2cbacked Yes | 47c | 57.12$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 44c | 56.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 18c | 55.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7aea…2ab8backed Yes | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 40c | 47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…47e7backed No | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed No | 62c | 38.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 105 | 32.4%34 W · 71 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1edb…a60bbacked No | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c89…526abacked Yes | 53c | 35.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9531…18ffbacked Yes | 53c | 35.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6b…7823backed Yes | 58c | 34.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 48c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Yes | 54c | 29.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 45c | 29.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Yes | 41c | 25.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 124 | 60.5%75 W · 49 L | +19.9wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x048e…63e3backed Yes | 77c | 25.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 71cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x452f…b277backed Yes | 55c | 25.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d21…92e5backed Yes | 55c | 23.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Yes | 55c | 21.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Yes | 55c | 18.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed Yes | 59c | 18.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SG Dynamo Dresden win on 2026-05-02?this page
- Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern win on 2026-05-02?No won
- Will SG Dynamo Dresden vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.