WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-12.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87dc454489562ea35734d494154bdef8a688399dae751df84e81dc3a3a9cf397
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- PortlandFireof Atlanta Dream, PortlandFire
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,282
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,534
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,282 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Atlanta Dream | 50c | 12,953$6,477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,476.56 | 81 | 59.3%48 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x021c…232fbacked PortlandFire | 52c | 5,200$2,692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,508 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a66…ae5ebacked Atlanta Dream | 52c | 3,848$2,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000.96 | 88 | 59.1%52 W · 36 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed PortlandFire | 50c | 3,283$1,641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,641.65 | 785 | 48.8%383 W · 402 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked PortlandFire | 50c | 2,816$1,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,406.43 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Atlanta Dream | 48c | 2,628$1,262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,261.51 | 462 | 47%217 W · 245 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc594…773fbacked PortlandFire | 47c | 2,266$1,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,201.26 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked PortlandFire | 48c | 2,196$1,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,142.34 | 117 | 54.7%64 W · 53 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed PortlandFire | 53c | 1,930$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$910.63 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked PortlandFire | 50c | 1,015$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.7 | 411 | 45.7%188 W · 223 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked PortlandFire | 50c | 904.57$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.29 | 922 | 48.8%450 W · 472 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…86d3backed PortlandFire | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 76 | 43.4%33 W · 43 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d35…06b5backed PortlandFire | 50c | 588.23$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.12 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c74…4ef0backed Atlanta Dream | 49c | 557.01$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.93 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…30ccbacked Atlanta Dream | 49c | 447$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.03 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5d…7501backed PortlandFire | 55c | 309.64$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.55 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Atlanta Dream | 51c | 250$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.5 | 323 | 46.7%151 W · 172 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed PortlandFire | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafe4…f3f7backed PortlandFire | 47c | 160.45$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.04 | 274 | 49.6%136 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Atlanta Dream | 52c | 127.29$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.1 | 224 | 46%103 W · 121 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Atlanta Dream | 49c | 94$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.06 | 184 | 41.8%77 W · 107 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed PortlandFire | 52c | 89.37$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.63 | 837 | 48.1%403 W · 434 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…e76ebacked Atlanta Dream | 52c | 85.01$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.31 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Atlanta Dream | 52c | 80.9$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.07 | 327 | 43.7%143 W · 184 L | -23.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Atlanta Dream | 47c | 77.66$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 329 | 48.6%160 W · 169 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Atlanta Dream | 48c | 76.24$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c3…2061backed PortlandFire | 50c | 56.55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.28 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Atlanta Dream | 53c | 50.73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 426 | 49.3%210 W · 216 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9565…ec9abacked PortlandFire | 50c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -8.4wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xae28…8883backed PortlandFire | 49c | 39.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3637…21a4backed Atlanta Dream | 49c | 37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Atlanta Dream | 54c | 34.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 641 | 52%333 W · 308 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed PortlandFire | 50c | 30.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 893 | 49.4%441 W · 452 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37bd…ed2abacked PortlandFire | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed PortlandFire | 48c | 27.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 246 | 56.5%139 W · 107 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked PortlandFire | 49c | 23.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…a049backed Atlanta Dream | 53c | 19.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 112 | 42.9%48 W · 64 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4548…e4b5backed Atlanta Dream | 53c | 18.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Atlanta Dream (-12.5)this page
- Angel Reese: Rebounds O/U 11.5No won
- PortlandFire vs. Atlanta DreamPortlandFire won
- PortlandFire vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 172.5Over won
- PortlandFire vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 173.5Over won
- Spread: Atlanta Dream (-11.5)PortlandFire won
- Spread: Atlanta Dream (-13.5)PortlandFire won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.