CS2 · resolved market
IEM Cologne: Astralis vs. B8
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x880028173a7f094e55ddc4a2aa194168fb187dbd5a40e430d93ad007d5d46bef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Astralisof Astralis, B8
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,132
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,976
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,132 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Astralis | 64c | 2,200$1,398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$802 | 218 | 46.8%102 W · 116 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52ad…337dbacked B8 | 38c | 2,000$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.99 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf747…f687backed B8 | 36c | 1,945$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.36 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed B8 | 17c | 1,938$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.66 | 103 | 48.5%50 W · 53 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed B8 | 15c | 1,924$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.41 | 1,259 | 42.5%535 W · 724 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98b1…d855backed B8 | 37c | 1,584$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f78…68a4backed B8 | 10c | 1,390$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.6 | 85 | 4.7%4 W · 81 L | -8.5wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -84.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…c803backed B8 | 13c | 985$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd8…aeabbacked B8 | 36c | 974.98$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcca…c460backed Astralis | 65c | 935$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.2 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Astralis | 62c | 838.71$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.71 | 854 | 46.4%396 W · 458 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb868…a94ebacked B8 | 17c | 672.18$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.27 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Astralis | 75c | 622$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.64 | 421 | 49.6%209 W · 212 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7753…73cebacked Astralis | 64c | 419.26$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.01 | 106 | 63.2%67 W · 39 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed Astralis | 65c | 400$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 212 | 51.4%109 W · 103 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked B8 | 37c | 375$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.75 | 160 | 33.8%54 W · 106 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76c0…d8bebacked Astralis | 76c | 315.61$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.56 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Astralis | 64c | 312.5$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 367 | 51%187 W · 180 L | -15.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1669…22efbacked Astralis | 64c | 312.28$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.28 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Astralis | 64c | 180$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked B8 | 35c | 167.7$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.69 | 121 | 45.5%55 W · 66 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f39…27a5backed B8 | 24c | 165.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.07 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x476b…8a58backed B8 | 37c | 126$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.6 | 420 | 57.1%240 W · 180 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Astralis | 65c | 123.08$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.08 | 234 | 54.7%128 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc203…ffb8backed B8 | 37c | 120$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Astralis | 79c | 113.6$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 736 | 58.2%428 W · 308 L | -22.8wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb950…4dd4backed B8 | 18c | 109.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 567 | 38.8%220 W · 347 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed B8 | 15c | 90.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Astralis | 73c | 89.04$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.04 | 609 | 53.4%325 W · 284 L | -31.0wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…604ebacked Astralis | 72c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 821 | 46.3%380 W · 441 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d5…bfe9backed Astralis | 60c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 633 | 45.2%286 W · 347 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80e3…e76cbacked Astralis | 70c | 25.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d73…2a58backed Astralis | 74c | 25.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb82…524bbacked Astralis | 64c | 21.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Astralis | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 354 | 54.2%192 W · 162 L | -20.1wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Astralis | 61c | 18.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 1,144 | 49.4%565 W · 579 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.