TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 3?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,915
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,576

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,915 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xba63…36dcbacked Yes39c710.87$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.2740237.1%149 W · 253 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No43c345.07$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes35c318.87$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.0317,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1465…e0dbbacked Yes45c224.73$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.4910445.2%47 W · 57 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed No59c223.87$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.522,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8882…03fbbacked Yes40c214.54$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.3251733.3%172 W · 345 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes52c204.02$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.3189544.7%400 W · 495 L+30.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x035b…c6ddbacked No47c196.56$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.325049.2%123 W · 127 L-10.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes61c166.95$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.5922746.7%106 W · 121 L-0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5470…0af7backed No64c164.21$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.132872%236 W · 92 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick73cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No61c140.3$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.810,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes40c121.95$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.429941.1%123 W · 176 L+20.8wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+19.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked No39c119$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.411,06147.9%508 W · 553 L+32.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No63c107.08$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.342,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No74c101.58$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.842,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No55c101.4$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.498,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes73c99.2$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.2932147.4%152 W · 169 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes36c85.43$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.464,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c3…20e0backed No63c84$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.9263757.6%367 W · 270 L+1.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa054…a95dbacked No64c82.88$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.2439966.2%264 W · 135 L+33.6wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+20.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes36c81.85$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.291,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No63c81.78$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.529,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes39c80.68$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.157,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6584…3f95backed No62c80.17$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.43056.7%17 W · 13 L-3.5wins-0.12per pick68cpaid-22.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No66c73.64$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.553,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2401…0753backed No59c67.47$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.924854.2%26 W · 22 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4f9…8d24backed No59c67$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.5347738.8%185 W · 292 L+18.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No53c66.2$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.965,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes38c64.98$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.291,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d07…2b94backed Yes34c60.69$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.2917443.7%76 W · 98 L-8.6wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes29c60.03$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.961821.2%131 W · 487 L-34.2wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-48.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No65c58.35$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.72,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes78c56$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.461,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes44c55.99$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.632,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed54…4967backed Yes39c53$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.3349854.6%272 W · 226 L+46.4wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+20.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x047b…83b1backed No60c52.39$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5113452.2%70 W · 64 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b4b…ce4cbacked Yes33c51.82$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.72955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.21per pick34cpaid+18.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5157…fdbcbacked No57c50$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.553353.1%283 W · 250 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes37c49.99$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.493,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No61c48.15$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.144,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No47c47.51$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2188650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes37c47.51$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.73,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No31c46.95$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.711,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes60c46.37$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.335,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No61c46$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.981,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes45c44.45$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.513,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0934…f376backed Yes73c41.81$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.21936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-19.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6659…b7cabacked No55c41.8$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9993837.6%353 W · 585 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff06…c7d5backed No63c39.4$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8211258.9%66 W · 46 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb838…f5d1backed Yes64c38.93$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.051973.7%14 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick65cpaid+18.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No37c37.83$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.872,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80bb…b8aabacked No67c37.31$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.20per pick67cpaid+32.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5278…5306backed Yes54c37.01$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.0114941.6%62 W · 87 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No30c36$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.621,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa259…6597backed No60c33.38$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9799571.1%707 W · 288 L+22.0wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No60c32.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6598565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed No62c32.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed Yes72c32.17$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.991,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x11a4…f434backed No60c31.54$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0747569.5%330 W · 145 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe801…764fbacked No66c30.29$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.995872.4%42 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick75cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes37c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1967633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No65c29.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.494,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b18…2639backed Yes41c29.27$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.2743842%184 W · 254 L-14.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x10f4…c2eabacked No55c29.07$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.995149%25 W · 26 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked No59c29.03$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.241,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38a7…d69dbacked No48c26$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5623549.4%116 W · 119 L-12.8wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x558b…f41bbacked No62c25.24$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7628660.8%174 W · 112 L-15.8wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-8.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbd85…7a3dbacked No60c25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.951,05051.2%538 W · 512 L-99.4wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-15.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed No61c24.65$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.992,24934.2%769 W · 1,480 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7903…57f6backed No61c24$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5327769%191 W · 86 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa990…dc90backed No69c21.85$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1559144.5%263 W · 328 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2df9…4534backed No72c20.83$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1525747.5%122 W · 135 L+1.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41fa…7cc4backed No65c20.77$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.679255.2%437 W · 355 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15b7…4cdebacked No65c20.37$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.188661.6%53 W · 33 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes73c20.15$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.3652446.2%242 W · 282 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bbe…f8b0backed No57c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.46358.7%37 W · 26 L-4.8wins-0.08per pick66cpaid-10.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed Yes71c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.81,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4167…f99abacked No75c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151,03668.6%711 W · 325 L-33.9wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-4.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No57c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.41,27147.6%605 W · 666 L-25.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32b9…9a9cbacked No62c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.464960.2%391 W · 258 L-17.0wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5329…fea7backed No58c17.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.151163.6%7 W · 4 L-0.1wins0.00per pick64cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb07e…e682backed No64c16$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1625868.2%176 W · 82 L+0.2wins0.00per pick68cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x804b…b090backed No68c15.38$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4618365.6%120 W · 63 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.