Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd895bc1a00d4ee78a7208bd20d652a963f8c4e5fd96c17405f6c7ded1cced3ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,815
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,652
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,815 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 29c | 741.29$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.2 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 71c | 473.8$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.84 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 27c | 261.72$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.39 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 45c | 198.8$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.82 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5965…33b5backed No | 54c | 185.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.3 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 174.57$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.67 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb38e…272bbacked Yes | 13c | 127.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 102 | 19.6%20 W · 82 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 51c | 124.42$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.23 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 62c | 123.77$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.49 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 42c | 110.11$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.69 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 75c | 108.53$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 59c | 104.67$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.62 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 22c | 103.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 97.35$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.86 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 36c | 91.3$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x521e…a47bbacked Yes | 46c | 85.07$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.29 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafb8…7451backed Yes | 29c | 84.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 93 | 35.5%33 W · 60 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 46c | 82$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 71c | 68$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 54c | 66.93$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.95 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 53c | 66.63$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.52 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 66.2$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 73c | 62.51$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1465…e0dbbacked No | 80c | 62.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0934…f376backed Yes | 55c | 61$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.37 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 31c | 56.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 76c | 56.02$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 55.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 26c | 53.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 52c | 50.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 49.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 66c | 49.49$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 26c | 49.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 48.16$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3621…9da2backed Yes | 32c | 47.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | +12.1wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 41.97$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 57c | 39.64$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…4cdebacked No | 66c | 38.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 86 | 61.6%53 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80bb…b8aabacked No | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 67cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 62c | 36.51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 72c | 36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 65c | 35.53$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 67c | 34.9$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 76c | 31.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 74c | 30.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a1…4ca0backed Yes | 34c | 30.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 29.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 75c | 27.64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 74c | 27.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 57c | 23.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93f0…b231backed No | 68c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 70c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…bbeabacked No | 66c | 21.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 62c | 19.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 19.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a79…966dbacked No | 71c | 18.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 60c | 18.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked No | 72c | 18.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 62c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 79c | 16.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.44 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed No | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 73c | 15.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82cc…d569backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 111 | 73%81 W · 30 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.