Dota2 · resolved market
LGD Gaming vs MOUZ: Draw (1-1)?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x882329090d7f84de9b8c16d396fb934bb79aa4de0516ed300733232d77471177
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,905
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,188
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,905 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x41f4…ee16backed No | 43c | 2,270$981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$981.29 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 41c | 1,278$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.78 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed No | 33c | 1,107$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.92 | 173 | 30.1%52 W · 121 L | -16.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x93b6…5d73backed Yes | 57c | 1,055$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.41 | 133 | 36.8%49 W · 84 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Yes | 56c | 1,027$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.83 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbe…dc24backed Yes | 51c | 692.61$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.81 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5672…7312backed Yes | 66c | 627.66$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.21 | 520 | 46.5%242 W · 278 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf936…fe2cbacked Yes | 55c | 451.47$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.97 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked No | 35c | 436.75$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.46 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec47…a9c2backed Yes | 55c | 432.95$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.45 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked No | 7c | 330$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59e2…1c55backed Yes | 64c | 301.99$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.62 | 475 | 48%228 W · 247 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1614…0bedbacked Yes | 37c | 192.18$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.32 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a08…ebdcbacked Yes | 75c | 166$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 156.78$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.91 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf17d…6f86backed No | 50c | 135$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.05 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab12…764ebacked Yes | 54c | 92.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.55 | 270 | 60%162 W · 108 L | -11.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf836…e7b5backed Yes | 58c | 84.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.27 | 191 | 56%107 W · 84 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x419b…6ea1backed Yes | 38c | 79.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.21 | 224 | 53.1%119 W · 105 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 42c | 78.01$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa7…afb4backed No | 32c | 78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 68 | 57.4%39 W · 29 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…aab3backed Yes | 67c | 74.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 426 | 60.1%256 W · 170 L | +19.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6f…789bbacked No | 62c | 74.21$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.01 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -5.2wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -26%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6040…4c57backed No | 46c | 54.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec9…1873backed Yes | 51c | 45.42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 198 | 39.4%78 W · 120 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…b03cbacked No | 40c | 40.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e6cfbacked No | 37c | 31.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 55c | 28.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2de6…b08bbacked No | 41c | 26.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fff…d384backed Yes | 72c | 23.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9f…3988backed Yes | 72c | 19.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 194 | 60.3%117 W · 77 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 61c | 17.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 65c | 15.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f20…934fbacked Yes | 79c | 12.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.76 | 128 | 60.9%78 W · 50 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- LGD Gaming vs MOUZ: Draw (1-1)?this page
- LGD Gaming to win 2-0?No won
- MOUZ to win 2-0?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.