Dota2 · resolved market
LGD Gaming to win 2-0?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86303eea95ff71ca8fdb543c8f4bb037dc811ac7c5660f665ad8fe9acb526765
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,855
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,249
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,855 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b9…79a2backed No | 43c | 10,274$4,466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,808.01 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04f6…f24abacked Yes | 56c | 7,924$4,437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,437.4 | 503 | 47.1%237 W · 266 L | +14.9wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7951…bb41backed No | 38c | 2,797$1,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,729.38 | 647 | 44.4%287 W · 360 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87b5…0fcebacked Yes | 61c | 1,676$1,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,024.23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa61b…05e5backed Yes | 63c | 1,595$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c71…c0e5backed Yes | 59c | 1,530$903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$902.7 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0b…7aa5backed No | 38c | 1,248$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$773.58 | 451 | 39.2%177 W · 274 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d6…6bf4backed Yes | 62c | 896.77$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked No | 41c | 634.72$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.43 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…57bbbacked Yes | 56c | 499.99$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.99 | 418 | 64.1%268 W · 150 L | +17.2wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked No | 38c | 471.73$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.69 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1614…0bedbacked No | 43c | 452.32$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.44 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08cf…22b9backed Yes | 55c | 400$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221 | 537 | 58.8%316 W · 221 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…164dbacked No | 44c | 385.77$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.36 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31b9…150bbacked Yes | 54c | 369.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.79 | 592 | 54.1%320 W · 272 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09a6…73c7backed Yes | 57c | 347.97$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03f4…7e44backed No | 39c | 300.8$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.49 | 568 | 52.5%298 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 42c | 298.88$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.61 | 381 | 42%160 W · 221 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1044…d67abacked No | 40c | 295.01$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.94 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21cc…54bcbacked Yes | 62c | 233.37$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.69 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…38d3backed No | 46c | 225.7$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.36 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 65c | 224.84$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.15 | 713 | 42.5%303 W · 410 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabe5…d99abacked Yes | 59c | 218$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.62 | 386 | 49.5%191 W · 195 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf27…026fbacked Yes | 60c | 209.74$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.84 | 658 | 63.1%415 W · 243 L | +17.5wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41a5…75bbbacked No | 43c | 206.77$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.86 | 614 | 49.5%304 W · 310 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d59…bdf3backed Yes | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 675 | 55%371 W · 304 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x591d…f4dfbacked Yes | 62c | 193.55$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15d1…ccfebacked Yes | 57c | 187.5$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.63 | 546 | 59.7%326 W · 220 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Yes | 52c | 173.65$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.65 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed No | 45c | 168$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.52 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 41c | 156.77$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.56 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f8…e0b1backed No | 45c | 155.56$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.56 | 263 | 43%113 W · 150 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x294b…22d2backed Yes | 61c | 151.4$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.54 | 156 | 48.7%76 W · 80 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9d…9b0ebacked Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 311 | 26%81 W · 230 L | -17.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3c…9f22backed Yes | 59c | 138.98$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Yes | 57c | 134.17$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.86 | 173 | 30.1%52 W · 121 L | -16.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4462…7807backed Yes | 60c | 112.79$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.02 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3452…1ba0backed Yes | 61c | 109.38$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.44 | 183 | 51.9%95 W · 88 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab93…8479backed Yes | 62c | 104.66$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.64 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe99e…0084backed Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.63 | 876 | 45.7%400 W · 476 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked No | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 421 | 46.6%196 W · 225 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed No | 41c | 85.34$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.23 | 813 | 45.1%367 W · 446 L | -26.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 58c | 78.73$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.34 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80ba…2e78backed No | 42c | 76.03$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 885 | 39.7%351 W · 534 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c12…3d4cbacked Yes | 66c | 76.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc70…8be9backed No | 39c | 65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.65 | 253 | 54.5%138 W · 115 L | +13.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57e6…9622backed Yes | 61c | 56.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.76 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9f…3988backed No | 39c | 56.04$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.08 | 194 | 60.3%117 W · 77 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x495c…c9eabacked No | 40c | 54.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42cd…2359backed Yes | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…9867backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 925 | 61.2%566 W · 359 L | +53.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a2…a9bfbacked Yes | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 194 | 55.7%108 W · 86 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13a4…797fbacked Yes | 62c | 45.18$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3296…c186backed Yes | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | +7.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Yes | 56c | 43.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Yes | 60c | 40.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Yes | 57c | 37.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 42c | 36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31dc…cd45backed Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41f4…ee16backed No | 35c | 32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5f…c91dbacked Yes | 63c | 31.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 69cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef97…9790backed Yes | 63c | 31.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f26…c186backed Yes | 57c | 31.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7924backed Yes | 64c | 31.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 507 | 57.4%291 W · 216 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…172abacked Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 322 | 52.5%169 W · 153 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed No | 37c | 27.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 213 | 44.1%94 W · 119 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d1…cb84backed Yes | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…f40dbacked Yes | 60c | 25.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 447 | 71.1%318 W · 129 L | +27.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8e…3dc3backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbf…7ce5backed No | 43c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6e…6dc3backed Yes | 60c | 23.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 99 | 64.6%64 W · 35 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ab…4122backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- LGD Gaming to win 2-0?this page
- LGD Gaming vs MOUZ: Draw (1-1)?Yes won
- MOUZ to win 2-0?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.