Dota2 · resolved market
MOUZ to win 2-0?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08d4061fac3eb592f41e6675d1e4a42728f6b1b23c799a665292bfb550c4a49d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,923
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,663
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,923 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Yes | 60c | 1,855$1,109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,108.86 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 42c | 1,292$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$748.87 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa750…0d0fbacked No | 34c | 1,219$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$809.71 | 377 | 54.9%207 W · 170 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Yes | 40c | 802.59$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.47 | 1,120 | 36.1%404 W · 716 L | -39.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed No | 54c | 558$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.42 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f4…ee16backed Yes | 64c | 555.4$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.28 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab12…764ebacked No | 52c | 542.08$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.62 | 270 | 60%162 W · 108 L | -11.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 51c | 348.32$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.64 | 713 | 42.5%303 W · 410 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Yes | 51c | 318.94$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.3 | 173 | 30.1%52 W · 121 L | -16.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1044…d67abacked Yes | 7c | 187.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5672…7312backed Yes | 31c | 185.7$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.79 | 520 | 46.5%242 W · 278 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1614…0bedbacked Yes | 6c | 174.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd181…6a2bbacked Yes | 41c | 146.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.51 | 176 | 60.2%106 W · 70 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf17d…6f86backed No | 43c | 135$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.25 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 46c | 82.01$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.39 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 68c | 67.5$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa7…afb4backed No | 46c | 63.25$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.29 | 68 | 57.4%39 W · 29 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f8…67c0backed Yes | 39c | 60.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Yes | 54c | 55.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 57cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e6cfbacked No | 43c | 47.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9f…3988backed No | 78c | 47$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 194 | 60.3%117 W · 77 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked No | 43c | 33.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 421 | 46.6%196 W · 225 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…b03cbacked No | 54c | 31.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 80c | 28.34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked No | 59c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f26…c186backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- MOUZ to win 2-0?this page
- LGD Gaming to win 2-0?No won
- LGD Gaming vs MOUZ: Draw (1-1)?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.