Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on August 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8824738d748235a0568171c7c84349b72f74c846b799ea460e31f5caab6089e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,005
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,604
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,005 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb3dd…81b2backed Yes | 5c | 1,085$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.29 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc057…0c9abacked Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 68 | 20.6%14 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…8326backed Yes | 51c | 327.4$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.43 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 10c | 314.25$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 19c | 225.2$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8b…b7b8backed Yes | 25c | 197.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.61 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73a0…9342backed No | 72c | 171.41$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.19 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 74cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed No | 37c | 156.49$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.33 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 38c | 147.7$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.99 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa95e…a8edbacked Yes | 60c | 109.38$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.04 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…d659backed Yes | 57c | 105.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 195 | 51.8%101 W · 94 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…46c1backed Yes | 38c | 103.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.63 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…3e8bbacked Yes | 36c | 84.37$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 65c | 65.75$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 55c | 63.49$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.58 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed No | 57c | 61.23$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.56 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed No | 66c | 60.55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x153e…98afbacked Yes | 24c | 50.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa22c…2089backed Yes | 43c | 46.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 42c | 45.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf267…b0aebacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 99 | 9.1%9 W · 90 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 38c | 39.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 77c | 39.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 31c | 35.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 37c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 35c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 58c | 33.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 46c | 33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 42c | 28.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 47c | 26.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 73c | 24.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 62c | 22.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd1…b143backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 60c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on August 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on August 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 38°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 39°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 40°C or higher on August 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.