Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on August 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07812fa3e66dc4ede37b2921009a81ad2dff6c562591577c29f9cf7498ddd9e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,739
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,789
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,739 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 27c | 1,385$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.54 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 32c | 861.24$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.22 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d74…6bcbbacked Yes | 51c | 553.94$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.25 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 74c | 468.53$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.28 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 388.7$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.12 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 77c | 244.09$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.49 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed Yes | 22c | 213$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.57 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 37c | 198.03$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.3 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 68c | 189$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.48 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 12c | 175.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 64c | 174.5$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.26 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…96bdbacked No | 59c | 170.43$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.43 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 46c | 167.82$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.98 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 68c | 157.15$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.45 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 68c | 147.05$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 39c | 139.74$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 44c | 136$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.64 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 67c | 128.03$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.81 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 62c | 109.29$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.79 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 42c | 108.09$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.85 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 105$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.25 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 99.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 79c | 98.34$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.87 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb12d…62b4backed Yes | 42c | 94.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…a2bebacked No | 68c | 88.25$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.25 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba9d…46efbacked Yes | 41c | 84.87$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 64c | 82.97$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.62 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 36c | 79.82$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 73c | 77$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.87 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf3…369dbacked No | 79c | 74.88$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 52c | 70.68$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 182 | 35.2%64 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 69c | 68.93$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 73c | 67.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f2…0ff7backed No | 29c | 67.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.18 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | +15.1wins | +0.18per pick | 20cpaid | +161.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 17c | 65.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 18c | 64.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 63c | 63.72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.72 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47ac…7284backed Yes | 40c | 62.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -70%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed Yes | 30c | 61.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 39c | 61.31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.33 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e8…a5f9backed Yes | 32c | 56.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 62c | 52.6$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 37c | 51.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 74c | 49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 62c | 48.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 47c | 48.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 69c | 46$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 40c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6809…eae7backed No | 75c | 44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bfc…8d4fbacked No | 71c | 43.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 95 | 73.7%70 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x518c…d366backed Yes | 37c | 42.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 51c | 42.47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 38c | 41.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…3b13backed Yes | 41c | 40.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1526…248cbacked Yes | 49c | 35.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 47c | 32.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 64c | 30.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdae8…4736backed Yes | 35c | 30.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86ae…697fbacked Yes | 33c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf20b…49c5backed Yes | 36c | 29.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8573…c954backed Yes | 48c | 28.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 36c | 28.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 65c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 61c | 25.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 65c | 18.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 60c | 17.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on August 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on August 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 38°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 39°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 40°C or higher on August 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.