Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on August 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3d2d7d97e48b17cc42f01a86df664717952fd55a2337fe7474d613e77048088
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,441
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,223
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,441 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 26c | 1,227$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$907.4 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 23c | 1,024$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790.88 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 16c | 875.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.16 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4d…bb01backed Yes | 18c | 555.51$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.52 | 218 | 29.4%64 W · 154 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 74c | 537$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.82 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 15c | 488.18$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.87 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 42c | 468.53$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.8 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 426.76$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.01 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 29c | 388$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.2 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9c…079dbacked No | 80c | 380.07$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.97 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb21f…cf00backed No | 77c | 349.96$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.47 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 19c | 300$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.47 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 19c | 271.79$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.13 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 18c | 270.1$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.19 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa907…ba96backed No | 19c | 267.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.71 | 109 | 55%60 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 7c | 240.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 28c | 237.63$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.96 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 35c | 211.49$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.38 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…8326backed Yes | 76c | 198.89$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.33 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 16c | 190.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.41 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 35c | 152.27$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.59 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 140$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 17c | 137.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbd30…685bbacked No | 58c | 130.22$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.98 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 29c | 130$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.22 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 51c | 126.53$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.02 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 66c | 117.89$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.37 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 42c | 115.71$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.63 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 76c | 113$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.64 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e0…016abacked No | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed7…9117backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74aa…2c3fbacked No | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…ae41backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.2 | 90 | 27.8%25 W · 65 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed Yes | 22c | 99.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.99 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 75c | 90$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.7 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 23c | 90$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.3 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 19c | 89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.09 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 70c | 87.08$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.96 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 72c | 86.93$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.74 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 20c | 84.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 71c | 82.98$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.7 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 50c | 77$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked No | 43c | 76.47$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.04 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 49c | 76$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.87 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 17c | 75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.05 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe2…f54abacked Yes | 45c | 66.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.34 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 28c | 63.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.77 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 80c | 61.14$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.89 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x606d…89e6backed No | 77c | 61$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.86 | 56 | 69.6%39 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d74…6bcbbacked Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 20c | 55.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x518c…d366backed Yes | 31c | 55.18$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.2 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 24c | 49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 66c | 46.59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 47c | 45.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 75c | 42.74$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.06 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1526…248cbacked Yes | 42c | 41.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.17 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 42c | 40.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.73 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 30c | 40.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.43 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba9d…46efbacked Yes | 31c | 39.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.29 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8573…c954backed Yes | 41c | 38.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 30c | 37.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.21 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64be…c653backed Yes | 28c | 37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.74 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb704…0de9backed Yes | 55c | 36.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked No | 76c | 34.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73c9…5eb1backed Yes | 33c | 32.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.87 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 36c | 28.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…d568backed No | 74c | 27.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…32d8backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 136 | 55.1%75 W · 61 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8177…e5d4backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 89 | 76.4%68 W · 21 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 43c | 24.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 72c | 23.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96f9…fababacked Yes | 80c | 23.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2b…6555backed Yes | 55c | 20.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3af9…b4bbbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c65…dcf7backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 159 | 61.6%98 W · 61 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafbe…072ebacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11b5…8c02backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6809…eae7backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 58c | 18.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 17.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 75c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83f6…9ac8backed No | 72c | 14.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 51 | 70.6%36 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 73cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on August 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 38°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 39°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 40°C or higher on August 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.