NFL · resolved market
Spread: Panthers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x882c3b8648be6d92dfc62ccedcb2746beebfb41b8756f03bd97c0fa5d447c0f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Panthersof Panthers, Jets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,058
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,810
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,058 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Jets | 51c | 8,734$4,453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,453.37 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d47…d0a2backed Panthers | 49c | 6,706$3,286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,420.12 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.5wins | +0.29per pick | 54cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xea00…42e8backed Panthers | 47c | 2,266$1,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,195.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +107.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae1b…acd1backed Jets | 53c | 2,092$1,109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,108.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Jets | 52c | 1,925$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.99 | 140 | 35%49 W · 91 L | -12.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Panthers | 49c | 1,708$836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$871.32 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Panthers | 47c | 1,587$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$841.34 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7900…c1e9backed Jets | 53c | 1,472$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75a6…510dbacked Panthers | 48c | 1,471$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Panthers | 49c | 398$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.98 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Panthers | 48c | 382.95$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.28 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Panthers | 48c | 196.88$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.87 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Jets | 52c | 195$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.4 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Panthers | 47c | 186.7$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.09 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Jets | 53c | 127.87$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.83 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Panthers | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6941…efd5backed Panthers | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 132 | 53%70 W · 62 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Panthers | 46c | 79.32$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.83 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Jets | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 198 | 44.9%89 W · 109 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…5286backed Panthers | 48c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa794…e7d8backed Panthers | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -8.0wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0338…4f11backed Panthers | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Panthers | 49c | 42.87$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47f1…876bbacked Panthers | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9161…622ebacked Panthers | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2034…68eebacked Panthers | 50c | 30.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93aa…9ababacked Panthers | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1171…ff19backed Jets | 52c | 29.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfd…3462backed Jets | 52c | 28.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7687…d750backed Jets | 54c | 27.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfca9…cb3dbacked Jets | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc067…d9adbacked Panthers | 48c | 21.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Panthers (-1.5)this page
- Panthers vs. JetsPanthers won
- Panthers vs. Jets: O/U 40.5Under won
- Panthers vs. Jets: O/U 41.5Under won
- Panthers vs. Jets: O/U 42.5Under won
- Panthers vs. Jets: O/U 43.5Under won
- Panthers vs. Jets: O/U 44.5Under won
- Panthers vs. Jets: O/U 45.5Under won
- Spread: Jets (-1.5)Panthers won
- Spread: Jets (-2.5)Panthers won
- Spread: Panthers (-2.5)Panthers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.