Spread: Tennessee Volunteers (-10.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88977e73793425ed94f71b72ce2f105d9c44bedcf44ee0932e5206cc3895efda

Rebuilt 16 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Tennessee Volunteersof Tennessee Volunteers, Oklahoma Sooners
Resolved: Feb 18, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $30,342
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $30,400

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,342 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x5c2b…2575backed Tennessee Volunteers	51c	11,874$6,102 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,771.88	609	49.8%303 W · 306 L	-9.2wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Oklahoma Sooners	48c	9,999$4,839 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,839.49	417	52.5%219 W · 198 L	+13.2wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Oklahoma Sooners	45c	9,144$4,083 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,083.21	12,422	49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L	+118.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Tennessee Volunteers	56c	6,500$3,640 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,860	351	51.9%182 W · 169 L	+2.2wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb44f…8c20backed Tennessee Volunteers	57c	3,246$1,850 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,396.46	52	38.5%20 W · 32 L	-4.8wins	-0.09per pick	48cpaid	-27.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Oklahoma Sooners	49c	2,706$1,326 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,325.94	1,436	47.5%682 W · 754 L	-18.2wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Oklahoma Sooners	48c	1,932$927 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$926.76	2,896	50%1,448 W · 1,448 L	+71.0wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x777d…5143backed Tennessee Volunteers	51c	1,716$875 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$840.6	53	47.2%25 W · 28 L	-2.4wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Tennessee Volunteers	53c	1,079$574 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$504.65	557	49.2%274 W · 283 L	-7.4wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Oklahoma Sooners	44c	951.74$416 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$416.37	5,946	49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L	+163.0wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Oklahoma Sooners	49c	601$294 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$294.49	47	38.3%18 W · 29 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Tennessee Volunteers	52c	576.92$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$276.92	1,231	47%578 W · 653 L	-17.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9f8…e913backed Tennessee Volunteers	52c	423.08$220 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$203.08	250	49.2%123 W · 127 L	+8.6wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x44ca…907cbacked Oklahoma Sooners	44c	272$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.68	110	46.4%51 W · 59 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Oklahoma Sooners	46c	217.39$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	4,552	50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L	-36.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8d9…df36backed Oklahoma Sooners	47c	200$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94	145	53.1%77 W · 68 L	+9.2wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+14.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Tennessee Volunteers	51c	200$102 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98	1,070	46.9%502 W · 568 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5124…91bbbacked Oklahoma Sooners	43c	200$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86	270	48.1%130 W · 140 L	+12.8wins	+0.05per pick	43cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x450b…11d7backed Tennessee Volunteers	52c	192.31$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92.31	1,251	50.6%633 W · 618 L	+12.9wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb38c…b2c9backed Tennessee Volunteers	53c	153$81 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71.91	239	48.1%115 W · 124 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0fd…e1f5backed Tennessee Volunteers	54c	150$81 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69	1,162	55.2%641 W · 521 L	+25.2wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea78…a74ebacked Oklahoma Sooners	44c	136$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.84	204	52.9%108 W · 96 L	+11.9wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfc8b…d3d6backed Oklahoma Sooners	47c	96.1$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.41	307	46.3%142 W · 165 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x345d…4e41backed Oklahoma Sooners	48c	74.03$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.53	46	43.5%20 W · 26 L	-2.5wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Tennessee Volunteers	54c	61.11$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.11	233	63.9%149 W · 84 L	+8.2wins	+0.04per pick	60cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8eb7…d529backed Tennessee Volunteers	52c	57.69$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.69	211	52.1%110 W · 101 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb10b…ec5ebacked Tennessee Volunteers	52c	56.75$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.24	56	46.4%26 W · 30 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-11%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cec…5326backed Oklahoma Sooners	46c	50$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	852	48.8%416 W · 436 L	+4.4wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Oklahoma Sooners	46c	47.26$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.74	1,152	48.9%563 W · 589 L	+3.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8a97…c1f9backed Tennessee Volunteers	52c	40$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.2	219	55.3%121 W · 98 L	+13.2wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd96c…733cbacked Tennessee Volunteers	52c	39.1$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.77	134	48.5%65 W · 69 L	-5.7wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x05f9…f351backed Tennessee Volunteers	52c	26$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.48	85	47.1%40 W · 45 L	-4.6wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe315…3911backed Tennessee Volunteers	56c	25.24$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.13	216	51.4%111 W · 105 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e2…3c77backed Tennessee Volunteers	52c	25$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12	19	78.9%15 W · 4 L	+4.4wins	+0.23per pick	56cpaid	+46%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Tennessee Volunteers (-10.5)this page
Oklahoma Sooners vs. Tennessee VolunteersTennessee Volunteers won
Oklahoma Sooners vs. Tennessee Volunteers: O/U 149.5Over won
Oklahoma Sooners vs. Tennessee Volunteers: O/U 150.5Over won
Spread: Tennessee Volunteers (-11.5)Tennessee Volunteers won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Tennessee Volunteers (-10.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event