Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88b3678a8bc83a6912b1a227f998a6370e025c2f42cfe11d0605d33cec9c0b3f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,822
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,883
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,822 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcce9…2199backed Yes | 40c | 621.7$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.56 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 8c | 614.44$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.01 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 2c | 602.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 70c | 582.75$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x572e…872bbacked Yes | 43c | 373.51$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.22 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 30c | 208.59$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.01 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…6450backed No | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 141 | 19.1%27 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 193.13$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.18 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 30c | 172$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.16 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 30c | 156.26$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.38 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82cf…3d55backed Yes | 79c | 150$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…0500backed Yes | 37c | 147.02$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.17 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 24c | 146.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1047…0d63backed Yes | 42c | 138.89$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.56 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 36c | 138.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 57c | 135.87$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.89 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9044…dcedbacked Yes | 61c | 126$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.14 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 54c | 120.74$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.94 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 18c | 120.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98d…b266backed No | 63c | 119.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 42c | 118.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 66c | 101.52$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.65 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1b…7eb7backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 30c | 99.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.98 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 48c | 92.54$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed No | 26c | 89.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1184…a836backed No | 17c | 88.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 35c | 87.1$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.88 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 35c | 86.37$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked No | 28c | 85.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 28c | 84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 65c | 83.34$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.03 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8746…f522backed Yes | 49c | 75.79$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.79 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 62c | 75.26$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.97 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7d…b743backed Yes | 63c | 72$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…bdf5backed Yes | 41c | 71.34$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.94 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 67c | 71.04$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.9 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 62c | 70$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…65d5backed No | 30c | 66.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked No | 34c | 65.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 61c | 61.41$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.76 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d57…11f8backed Yes | 39c | 58$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.46 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 32c | 56.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.83 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…09f0backed Yes | 57c | 54.35$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.35 | 119 | 39.5%47 W · 72 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 48c | 51.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 61c | 50.85$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbed7…a0fabacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.11 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 39c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 59c | 49.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 28c | 49.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.37 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85b0…7c9abacked Yes | 40c | 46.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.39 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 31c | 46.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 39c | 40.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked No | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 50 | 82%41 W · 9 L | +8.3wins | +0.17per pick | 65cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 35c | 38.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 63c | 37.56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd113…6c00backed No | 61c | 37.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf045…c619backed Yes | 54c | 37.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.17 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 36c | 36.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.35 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05ee…93abbacked No | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 58c | 34.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 36c | 32.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 58c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7512…1986backed No | 63c | 30.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.8wins | -0.43per pick | 54cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 68c | 28.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 27.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 61c | 27.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 70c | 26.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 39c | 26.34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 49c | 26.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 64c | 24.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf923…55e0backed Yes | 41c | 24.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e2…db13backed No | 62c | 21.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 63c | 21.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 69c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 60c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf39…b050backed No | 68c | 20.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d69…9f70backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3a…9096backed Yes | 66c | 19.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 62c | 17.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 77c | 16.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 63c | 16.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C or below on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.