TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 10?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,822
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,883

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,822 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcce9…2199backed Yes40c621.7$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$375.567557.3%43 W · 32 L+6.1wins+0.08per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No8c614.44$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.017,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No2c602.76$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.372,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes70c582.75$411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1725,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x572e…872bbacked Yes43c373.51$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.228236.6%30 W · 52 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No30c208.59$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.016,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe4f0…6450backed No7c200$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1414119.1%27 W · 114 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No63c193.13$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.184,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No30c172$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.164,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes30c156.26$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.382,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82cf…3d55backed Yes79c150$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bca…0500backed Yes37c147.02$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.178538.8%33 W · 52 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No24c146.98$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.552,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1047…0d63backed Yes42c138.89$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.561346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No36c138.1$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.955,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf114…6eccbacked Yes57c135.87$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.891,09074.2%809 W · 281 L+179.3wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+34.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x9044…dcedbacked Yes61c126$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.14650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No54c120.74$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.949,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed No18c120.48$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9959923.5%141 W · 458 L-18.3wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-45.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa98d…b266backed No63c119.99$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.59450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-24.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No42c118.68$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.162,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No66c101.52$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.6510,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e1b…7eb7backed Yes37c100$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$638725.3%22 W · 65 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes30c99.98$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.9871031.5%224 W · 486 L+3.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3e4…f053backed No48c92.54$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.118046.1%83 W · 97 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xebf0…2330backed No26c89.85$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3141051.7%212 W · 198 L+24.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1184…a836backed No17c88.11$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152917.2%5 W · 24 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick18cpaid+27.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No35c87.1$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.8812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x63a1…0212backed No35c86.37$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6325258.7%148 W · 104 L-0.8wins0.00per pick59cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce07…5c3cbacked No28c85.25$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5231062.6%194 W · 116 L+38.4wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+33.3%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No28c84$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.15,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No65c83.34$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.033,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8746…f522backed Yes49c75.79$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.7911748.7%57 W · 60 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-17%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No62c75.26$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.971,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c7d…b743backed Yes63c72$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8629…bdf5backed Yes41c71.34$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.9412832%41 W · 87 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50d8…0a0ebacked No67c71.04$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.939968.9%275 W · 124 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No62c70$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.21,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7cf…65d5backed No30c66.64$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.997817.9%14 W · 64 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8882…03fbbacked No34c65.43$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.551733.3%172 W · 345 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x170b…4737backed No61c61.41$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.7680957.6%466 W · 343 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes37c60$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.820546.8%96 W · 109 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2797…9bc0backed No39c60$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.418142.5%77 W · 104 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes38c60$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.23,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d57…11f8backed Yes39c58$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.462744.4%12 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes32c56.98$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.8362137.7%234 W · 387 L+0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9008…09f0backed Yes57c54.35$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.3511939.5%47 W · 72 L+8.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+17.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes48c51.82$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.142,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed No61c50.85$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0248149.5%238 W · 243 L-26.0wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-17.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb664…abbdbacked Yes42c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.2544646.2%206 W · 240 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbed7…a0fabacked Yes40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.1112540%50 W · 75 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes39c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.751,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No59c49.98$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.393,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b72…42b9backed Yes28c49.12$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.3780735.4%286 W · 521 L+1.7wins0.00per pick35cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85b0…7c9abacked Yes40c46.93$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.39862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+21.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1735…0319backed No31c46.47$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.231,48015.6%231 W · 1,249 L+26.5wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No39c40.54$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.611,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x50e9…5efebacked No65c40$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265082%41 W · 9 L+8.3wins+0.17per pick65cpaid+28.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes32c40$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.260739.7%241 W · 366 L+27.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No35c38.02$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2395852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes63c37.56$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.062,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd113…6c00backed No61c37.33$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.77944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick57cpaid-9.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf045…c619backed Yes54c37.17$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.1718035.6%64 W · 116 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+0.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes36c36.49$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.3548523.7%115 W · 370 L-18.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x05ee…93abbacked No70c35.71$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258872.7%64 W · 24 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick74cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed No58c34.47$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.992,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes36c32.21$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4923951%122 W · 117 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No58c32$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.564,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7512…1986backed No63c30.95$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5911.1%1 W · 8 L-3.8wins-0.43per pick54cpaid-73.5%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xf2cf…464bbacked No63c30$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.81,11563.4%707 W · 408 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No51c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.31,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa259…6597backed No68c28.42$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1999571.1%707 W · 288 L+22.0wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No57c27.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.951,27147.6%605 W · 666 L-25.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed Yes61c27.89$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.82,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3d60…6df2backed No70c26.79$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7525766.1%170 W · 87 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-5.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed Yes39c26.34$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.072,24934.2%769 W · 1,480 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c70…34c4backed No49c26.25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7916847.6%80 W · 88 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed No68c25$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1750373.2%368 W · 135 L+25.3wins+0.05per pick68cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdd84…0fe5backed No59c25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7551568%350 W · 165 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd85…7a3dbacked No64c24.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.041,05051.2%538 W · 512 L-99.4wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-15.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf923…55e0backed Yes41c24.4$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.38250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+21.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9e2…db13backed No62c21.47$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.281963.2%12 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick65cpaid+1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No63c21.27$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.480560.6%488 W · 317 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No69c21$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.492,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed Yes60c21$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.412,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf39…b050backed No68c20.88$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.12560%15 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d69…9f70backed Yes66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.92259.1%13 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick61cpaid+9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No70c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.963,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b3a…9096backed Yes66c19.67$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.672445.8%11 W · 13 L+3.0wins+0.13per pick33cpaid+37.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed No62c17.48$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8491861.5%565 W · 353 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea21…f753backed Yes77c16.99$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.8923668.2%161 W · 75 L+18.8wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+14.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5219…7f31backed No63c16.73$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5435344.5%157 W · 196 L-18.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.