Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe247b53236b64a86fb60fdf23440e0d05da77deb635262b1bb0f9a8c76c5fca1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,568
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,020
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,568 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 46c | 703.86$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.73 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x572e…872bbacked Yes | 35c | 522.58$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.27 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 66c | 451.58$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.16 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcce9…2199backed Yes | 47c | 436.26$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.07 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked Yes | 24c | 356.1$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.98 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 6c | 353.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 10c | 322.7$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 50c | 248.5$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.25 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…0500backed Yes | 37c | 204.44$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.89 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 188.35$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.45 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 51c | 170$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.3 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 168.47$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.83 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8746…f522backed Yes | 37c | 160.54$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7d…b743backed Yes | 15c | 158.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1047…0d63backed Yes | 37c | 150$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.18 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 146.44$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.23 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 19c | 132.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 53c | 119.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.79 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 57c | 110$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.4 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 63c | 105.42$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.42 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.89 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1b…7eb7backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 90.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 59c | 90.29$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.95 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 18c | 89.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 46c | 86.42$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.75 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4885…2236backed Yes | 36c | 85.31$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.71 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 16c | 84.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 53c | 83.57$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.57 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 68c | 79.63$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.41 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 63c | 78.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.26 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 78.1$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.33 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 57c | 76$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.54 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafa9…5ed8backed Yes | 36c | 75.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 74.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…bdf5backed Yes | 33c | 70.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 65c | 65$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dad…147cbacked No | 73c | 61.35$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 36 | 77.8%28 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 164 | 32.9%54 W · 110 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 66c | 54.78$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 29c | 51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 33c | 49.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 38c | 49.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 43c | 47.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 31c | 46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 52c | 45.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.15 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a41…2562backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9848…f408backed Yes | 38c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 48c | 44.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.19 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf045…c619backed Yes | 46c | 43.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…09f0backed Yes | 39c | 38.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 119 | 39.5%47 W · 72 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 37c | 37.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 53c | 37.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa50b…12c4backed Yes | 54c | 37.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 60c | 36.34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 56c | 36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 67c | 35.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab38…acf6backed Yes | 56c | 35.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7445…268fbacked Yes | 56c | 35.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb4…4ea8backed Yes | 55c | 35.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 75 | 62.7%47 W · 28 L | +10.3wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 58c | 35.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 54c | 32.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 73c | 31.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 62c | 31.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8835…433abacked Yes | 36c | 30.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98c…a75ebacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe985…8cc8backed No | 44c | 28.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 74c | 27.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 53c | 25.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked No | 59c | 25.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 51c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc3…4972backed Yes | 45c | 23.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f46…ef94backed Yes | 46c | 23.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 56c | 22.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 68c | 22.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 65c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 70c | 20.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 65c | 20.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf39…b050backed No | 61c | 19.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf923…55e0backed Yes | 53c | 18.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 17.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 65c | 16.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8a…bdedbacked No | 78c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59ad…0cf2backed No | 74c | 14.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.66 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | -7.0wins | -0.10per pick | 72cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C or below on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.