Tennis · resolved market
US Open: Matteo Arnaldi vs Francisco Cerundolo
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88cefc39edff416e1c1d8a6f9a87a3f0bbfc6a79fbf41fa7adff112964983230
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cerundoloof Arnaldi, Cerundolo
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,938
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,692
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,938 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ef2…f473backed Cerundolo | 17c | 5,030$854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,175.8 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1126…6e7abacked Cerundolo | 44c | 4,447$1,971 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,475.65 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -48%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Cerundolo | 55c | 2,675$1,471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,204 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f0dfbacked Cerundolo | 39c | 2,600$1,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,588.4 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a4d…69e7backed Arnaldi | 45c | 2,220$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -5.5wins | -0.23per pick | 65cpaid | -40%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Arnaldi | 79c | 2,011$1,587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,587.24 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Cerundolo | 56c | 2,000$1,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880 | 260 | 39.2%102 W · 158 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed Arnaldi | 44c | 1,950$858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$858 | 528 | 44.7%236 W · 292 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Arnaldi | 69c | 1,877$1,298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,297.99 | 1,107 | 42.8%474 W · 633 L | -20.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed Arnaldi | 54c | 1,845$1,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001.61 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Arnaldi | 69c | 1,318$915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$915 | 178 | 33.1%59 W · 119 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked Arnaldi | 62c | 697.9$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.1 | 127 | 37%47 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…19e8backed Arnaldi | 67c | 680.57$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.58 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…1e7bbacked Cerundolo | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.67 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +4.0wins | +0.30per pick | 31cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Arnaldi | 52c | 631$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.22 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…e35fbacked Arnaldi | 62c | 500$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.85 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecba…5fb4backed Arnaldi | 61c | 410.56$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.21 | 114 | 57.9%66 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe394…289cbacked Arnaldi | 59c | 383$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.49 | 284 | 51.1%145 W · 139 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed Cerundolo | 75c | 378$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.5 | 58 | 69%40 W · 18 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Cerundolo | 58c | 269$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.98 | 183 | 38.8%71 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked Cerundolo | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 227 | 37.4%85 W · 142 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed Cerundolo | 57c | 245.61$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.61 | 110 | 60.9%67 W · 43 L | +12.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Arnaldi | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Arnaldi | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Arnaldi | 44c | 207.33$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.51 | 159 | 57.2%91 W · 68 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Arnaldi | 37c | 203.25$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d06…d48ebacked Cerundolo | 50c | 200.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.58 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 28cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa263…6cf0backed Arnaldi | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 175 | 38.3%67 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Arnaldi | 79c | 190.05$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.87 | 312 | 55.4%173 W · 139 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfed6…a111backed Arnaldi | 79c | 189.73$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8406…0176backed Arnaldi | 55c | 181$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.55 | 106 | 54.7%58 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d4…8d3cbacked Arnaldi | 75c | 179$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.23 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbceb…bd96backed Cerundolo | 58c | 172.4$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Arnaldi | 47c | 149.01$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.05 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa21d…a769backed Cerundolo | 58c | 138.13$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.47 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff72…512bbacked Arnaldi | 13c | 133.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0aaa…8c2bbacked Cerundolo | 41c | 122.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.76 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x285b…5231backed Arnaldi | 42c | 121$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.82 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Cerundolo | 41c | 120.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.52 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c40…ea3dbacked Cerundolo | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed Arnaldi | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 173 | 49.1%85 W · 88 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d62…b83fbacked Cerundolo | 65c | 91.88$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.9wins | -0.48per pick | 65cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a0…ca0cbacked Cerundolo | 43c | 90$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.22 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b2…273bbacked Arnaldi | 47c | 75.83$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6288…1bdcbacked Cerundolo | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2659…d77ebacked Cerundolo | 39c | 68.11$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.47 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3606…9bd2backed Arnaldi | 71c | 54.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.03 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Arnaldi | 42c | 48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Arnaldi | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 295 | 53.2%157 W · 138 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Arnaldi | 46c | 43.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe64f…5976backed Arnaldi | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Arnaldi | 40c | 33.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 85 | 22.4%19 W · 66 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Cerundolo | 54c | 33.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f01…4ca2backed Cerundolo | 58c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65eb…e197backed Arnaldi | 67c | 30.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4045…3307backed Arnaldi | 61c | 20.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -5.4wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4d88…81a0backed Cerundolo | 56c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.