Bundesliga · resolved market
Will VfL Wolfsburg vs. Eintracht Frankfurt end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x890102c14ddae2c4a83199fb0f755d8afd80298212c423e0315a1a5c927074ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,942
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,528
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,942 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 76c | 2,724$2,069 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.55 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 26c | 1,841$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.62 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x287a…02d2backed No | 72c | 1,106$796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.74 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 74cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 11c | 1,105$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.04 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19e2…ce3cbacked Yes | 26c | 1,006$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Yes | 26c | 999.99$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 168 | 50%84 W · 84 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bba…cf14backed No | 74c | 929.74$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.73 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 71cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 12c | 758.02$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.38 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 28c | 623.73$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.64 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x694c…eb70backed Yes | 26c | 425.17$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.54 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -4.4wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 12c | 393.82$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.02 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 29c | 329.83$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.74 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8749…bc74backed No | 74c | 310.09$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86be…4490backed Yes | 27c | 301.03$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.28 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…348dbacked Yes | 27c | 293.55$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.26 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa99e…28fbbacked No | 74c | 270.71$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 24c | 209.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.3 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20f1…5fcbbacked No | 74c | 186.05$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 9c | 183.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked No | 76c | 175.97$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.23 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a8…aec0backed No | 74c | 169.32$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a21…50d3backed Yes | 27c | 159.37$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.03 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 77c | 158.25$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.02 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1cd…d76cbacked No | 74c | 156.52$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfad…dae2backed No | 74c | 152.58$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x246d…21e9backed No | 74c | 151.6$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.42 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f86…5bb2backed No | 74c | 139.78$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 25c | 133.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +6.8wins | +0.23per pick | 41cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5465…ba43backed No | 75c | 131.33$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.83 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 74c | 120.74$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.39 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e4…2d33backed No | 74c | 119.11$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0aa…9d12backed No | 74c | 117.14$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x981b…b8eabacked Yes | 27c | 106.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…b875backed Yes | 28c | 102.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 214 | 50%107 W · 107 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfccd…02d6backed No | 73c | 99.98$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.99 | 46 | 71.7%33 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c6…3c48backed Yes | 26c | 95.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…ee5abacked Yes | 26c | 90.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4bf…f385backed No | 75c | 74.51$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…d1efbacked Yes | 26c | 72.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd851…4616backed Yes | 26c | 69.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Yes | 25c | 68.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3177…cb28backed Yes | 26c | 66.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 26c | 50.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b7…fefdbacked No | 77c | 31.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed No | 76c | 30.59$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91f0…c57abacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 64 | 57.8%37 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will VfL Wolfsburg vs. Eintracht Frankfurt end in a draw?this page
- Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-04-11?Yes won
- Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-04-11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.