Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on July 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89145ffb396edde1bde36a18a8a6cdd00f92185978e75681eec0b7db9b737e62
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,934
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,492
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,934 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 77c | 170.23$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.41 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 72c | 159.99$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 27c | 145.89$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.44 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 24c | 145.46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.97 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 48c | 133.53$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.3 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 12c | 112.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d3…a178backed No | 73c | 86.7$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd3…026dbacked Yes | 27c | 82.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 75c | 76.39$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.39 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 71.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 69.94$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 24c | 63.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 62c | 62.03$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.18 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 26c | 59.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 59.58$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5484…84e8backed No | 78c | 49.57$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 111 | 69.4%77 W · 34 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 73c | 49.45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 27c | 47.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 27c | 47.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x808c…0aa2backed No | 74c | 47.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 58c | 38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 31c | 34.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 73c | 33.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 73c | 28.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa957…7638backed Yes | 64c | 27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 76c | 24.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 79c | 24.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 76c | 20.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 74c | 20.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 71c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff3…4b1ebacked No | 73c | 15.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 80 | 73.8%59 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25f0…7d92backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x145a…4ed0backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 74cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 74c | 13.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on July 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be 77°F or below on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on July 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on July 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.