South American Leagues · resolved market
AA Argentinos Juniors vs. CA Tucumán: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8928b1150436605b6741fb445b8bb75f644e8c4cae938cbdb4e72737ae03e8b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,577
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,993
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,577 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38f0…2768backed Over | 42c | 16,215$6,804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,804.4 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…ea53backed Under | 58c | 4,000$2,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,680 | 248 | 55.2%137 W · 111 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x374a…03edbacked Under | 58c | 3,000$1,740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,260 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…d584backed Under | 58c | 1,750$1,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735 | 165 | 58.2%96 W · 69 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed Under | 58c | 1,500$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 10c | 1,300$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.58 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 14c | 947.69$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.78 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 63c | 537.13$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.16 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe75e…4b67backed Under | 58c | 500$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 183 | 58.5%107 W · 76 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed Under | 58c | 500$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 288 | 51.7%149 W · 139 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…0048backed Under | 58c | 500$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 230 | 56.5%130 W · 100 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 58c | 483.99$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.25 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Under | 58c | 450$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189 | 249 | 56.6%141 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…e297backed Under | 58c | 400$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 213 | 58.7%125 W · 88 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…b043backed Under | 58c | 400$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 165 | 59.4%98 W · 67 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8b…9e2dbacked Under | 58c | 400$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 158 | 57.6%91 W · 67 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 70c | 384$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.47 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf070…57b8backed Over | 30c | 320.43$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.79 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Over | 12c | 307.83$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.51 | 172 | 61%105 W · 67 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked Under | 58c | 250$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 216 | 57.9%125 W · 91 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…6edbbacked Under | 58c | 250$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 203 | 60.6%123 W · 80 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 58c | 239$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.38 | 507 | 46.7%237 W · 270 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…0a22backed Under | 58c | 150$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 220 | 58.6%129 W · 91 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04a5…d093backed Under | 58c | 150$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 155 | 60%93 W · 62 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 18c | 137.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f81…2bb7backed Under | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 242 | 57%138 W · 104 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd59…2e2fbacked Under | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 189 | 59.3%112 W · 77 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 41c | 96.46$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.55 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 65c | 82.93$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.41 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a65…3340backed Over | 42c | 81.37$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.77 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b35…7e1dbacked Under | 58c | 75$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Under | 58c | 75$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 179 | 60.3%108 W · 71 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Under | 58c | 75$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 135 | 57%77 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Under | 58c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | -7.2wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 58c | 69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Under | 58c | 43.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 72 | 69.4%50 W · 22 L | +12.3wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Under | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 194 | 60.3%117 W · 77 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Under | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 127 | 61.4%78 W · 49 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed Under | 58c | 19.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AA Argentinos Juniors vs. CA Tucumán: O/U 2.5this page
- AA Argentinos Juniors vs. CA Tucumán: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- AA Argentinos Juniors vs. CA Tucumán: O/U 1.5Under won
- Spread: AA Argentinos Juniors (-1.5)CA Tucumán won
- Spread: AA Argentinos Juniors (-2.5)CA Tucumán won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.