NHL · resolved market
Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8929745fa0e9261d1d4aa5eda94a9602c09573d8ff098572fbd4aede818bfd6c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Canadiensof Canadiens, Islanders
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,352
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,938
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,352 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Islanders | 33c | 1,935$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647.95 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Canadiens | 31c | 1,916$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,329.18 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Islanders | 71c | 600.8$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.35 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Islanders | 70c | 539.88$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.97 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Canadiens | 29c | 287.22$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.93 | 702 | 49%344 W · 358 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Islanders | 73c | 239.2$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.66 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf50…b426backed Canadiens | 29c | 231.1$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.08 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c7…5d22backed Canadiens | 30c | 159.67$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.77 | 84 | 45.2%38 W · 46 L | +14.8wins | +0.18per pick | 28cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Islanders | 60c | 123$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.46 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Islanders | 73c | 120$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.73 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Islanders | 61c | 105.37$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.82 | 345 | 47.8%165 W · 180 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe31…6573backed Canadiens | 29c | 97.87$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.09 | 210 | 42.4%89 W · 121 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5471…a236backed Canadiens | 31c | 91.77$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.6 | 115 | 51.3%59 W · 56 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Islanders | 71c | 91.38$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.88 | 106 | 63.2%67 W · 39 L | +7.7wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Islanders | 71c | 89.77$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.68 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Islanders | 69c | 85.58$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.05 | 323 | 53.9%174 W · 149 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8a…093bbacked Canadiens | 30c | 79.83$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.88 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Canadiens | 25c | 78.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.59 | 355 | 51%181 W · 174 L | +18.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Islanders | 71c | 61.47$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.66 | 311 | 48.2%150 W · 161 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Islanders | 70c | 59.33$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.62 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ad…71acbacked Islanders | 70c | 54.71$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…813ebacked Islanders | 71c | 54.34$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.58 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Canadiens | 29c | 54.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.54 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Islanders | 37c | 54.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 102 | 60.8%62 W · 40 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Islanders | 58c | 50.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Islanders | 69c | 48.06$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.16 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Canadiens | 30c | 39.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Canadiens | 42c | 33.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76ef…6559backed Canadiens | 71c | 33.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc57f…cfffbacked Canadiens | 70c | 26.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.27per pick | 64cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x33eb…b07ebacked Islanders | 73c | 20.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2488…ff0ebacked Canadiens | 70c | 19.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 66cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Islanders | 71c | 19.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)this page
- Canadiens vs. IslandersCanadiens won
- Canadiens vs. Islanders: O/U 2.5Over won
- Canadiens vs. Islanders: O/U 4.5Over won
- Canadiens vs. Islanders: O/U 5.5Under won
- Canadiens vs. Islanders: O/U 6.5Under won
- Canadiens vs. Islanders: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Islanders (-1.5)Canadiens won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.