NHL · resolved market
Canadiens vs. Islanders: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xabbf59008b50b48daf4b58e738010cc3fabfb76be5f5201dc2c01691b9903967
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,585
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,039
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,585 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Under | 18c | 2,695$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.79 | 588 | 41.8%246 W · 342 L | -20.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e52…2320backed Over | 73c | 1,723$1,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.28 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07aa…deb1backed Under | 23c | 1,473$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.75 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Over | 75c | 1,448$1,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.42 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 75c | 1,418$1,061 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.26 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb595…5922backed Over | 72c | 946.27$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.02 | 11 | 100%11 W · 0 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 26c | 897.18$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.28 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20f6…0f69backed Over | 52c | 490.77$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.67 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x441d…544dbacked Under | 48c | 484.9$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.8 | 94 | 31.9%30 W · 64 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01ee…6ab0backed Over | 71c | 355.48$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.03 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 63c | 334.76$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 254 | 49.6%126 W · 128 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Over | 72c | 329.75$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.61 | 521 | 72.6%378 W · 143 L | +36.7wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd866…55e0backed Over | 74c | 320.95$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.45 | 18 | 88.9%16 W · 2 L | +5.5wins | +0.30per pick | 59cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 27c | 268.78$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.71 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 24c | 262$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.62 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Over | 68c | 250$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.8 | 571 | 57.8%330 W · 241 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b0…533bbacked Under | 42c | 235.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x205b…d66abacked Over | 75c | 150$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.56 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 30c | 147.35$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.47 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 58c | 131.4$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.64 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 25c | 130$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.87 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 29c | 125.24$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.17 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 19c | 125$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 27c | 112$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 345 | 47.8%165 W · 180 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 72c | 111.11$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.67 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 70c | 91.88$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.68 | 214 | 63.1%135 W · 79 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Under | 20c | 76.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff9…bf35backed Under | 17c | 73.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Under | 27c | 70.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 820 | 43%353 W · 467 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 31c | 67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 108 | 51.9%56 W · 52 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 19c | 66.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 333 | 63.7%212 W · 121 L | +44.3wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x73cf…149dbacked Under | 47c | 46.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…bf95backed Under | 74c | 42.61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 30c | 36.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 513 | 43.3%222 W · 291 L | -21.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Over | 71c | 32.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd682…de74backed Under | 52c | 28.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc56f…3670backed Over | 52c | 28.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 61c | 23.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 52c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 78c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Canadiens vs. Islanders: O/U 4.5this page
- Canadiens vs. IslandersCanadiens won
- Canadiens vs. Islanders: O/U 2.5Over won
- Canadiens vs. Islanders: O/U 5.5Under won
- Canadiens vs. Islanders: O/U 6.5Under won
- Canadiens vs. Islanders: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)Canadiens won
- Spread: Islanders (-1.5)Canadiens won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.