Mls · resolved market
Philadelphia Union vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x892a8c0c73cadaa057818d4dc630b5e3e6e00e7351dd931b35bf0a3c82d7999a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,284
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,996
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,284 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x04d5…66d8backed Over | 39c | 29,628$11,477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,476.94 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 62c | 15,152$9,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,731.68 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 70c | 5,805$4,073 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,731.12 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa38a…821dbacked Over | 17c | 5,754$972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$972.16 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 61c | 4,023$2,474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,549 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 21c | 2,334$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.02 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91fe…c1c6backed Over | 20c | 2,287$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.49 | 382 | 46.1%176 W · 206 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 62c | 2,207$1,358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$848.97 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Under | 62c | 1,700$1,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646 | 103 | 58.3%60 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 38c | 1,587$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.99 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 62c | 1,462$901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.26 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Under | 61c | 567$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.13 | 184 | 56.5%104 W · 80 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x793c…1b9ebacked Over | 38c | 555$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.9 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…ff1bbacked Under | 61c | 501.56$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.29 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Under | 63c | 499.96$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.99 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +7.6wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Under | 61c | 424$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.36 | 106 | 28.3%30 W · 76 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 73c | 257.81$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.25 | 233 | 50.6%118 W · 115 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 62c | 256$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.28 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Under | 61c | 222.46$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.76 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…63d5backed Under | 61c | 221.31$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.31 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…5925backed Under | 61c | 203.77$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.47 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab4…f8c6backed Under | 72c | 185$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.35 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Under | 62c | 169.41$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.93 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 20c | 155.04$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Under | 74c | 145.46$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.82 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca89…7bc4backed Under | 61c | 144$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.16 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +8.5wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8cd…ed53backed Under | 61c | 122.95$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.95 | 29 | 79.3%23 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 69cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f0…fd92backed Over | 38c | 105.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a64…683ebacked Under | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 62c | 98.93$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.59 | 264 | 50%132 W · 132 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4993…553fbacked Under | 61c | 78.03$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.43 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 63c | 74.4$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.43 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 62c | 68$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…4415backed Under | 61c | 54$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 110 | 55.5%61 W · 49 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 78c | 51.3$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 120 | 58.3%70 W · 50 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Under | 61c | 51.08$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 204 | 49%100 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Over | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f75…ce35backed Under | 78c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Under | 61c | 43.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 96 | 54.2%52 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Over | 36c | 39.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa384…3c9fbacked Under | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 77c | 36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…0a22backed Under | 61c | 36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 111 | 44.1%49 W · 62 L | -9.4wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x395e…cba5backed Under | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 61c | 19.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 169 | 48.5%82 W · 87 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 61c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…7199backed Under | 61c | 16.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Union vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Philadelphia Union vs. Seattle Sounders FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Philadelphia Union vs. Seattle Sounders FC: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Philadelphia Union vs. Seattle Sounders FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Philadelphia Union vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Philadelphia Union vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Philadelphia Union vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Philadelphia Union vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Philadelphia Union vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Philadelphia Union (-1.5)Seattle Sounders FC won
- Spread: Philadelphia Union (-2.5)Seattle Sounders FC won
- Spread: Seattle Sounders FC (-1.5)Philadelphia Union won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.