Mls · resolved market
Philadelphia Union vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3344ca5f149fb0c3aee31b3bac764571131cd12d306d1462bbe82a2185fbe90f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,380
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,098
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,380 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 34c | 5,373$1,814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,558.6 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91fe…c1c6backed Over | 71c | 1,804$1,279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,279.03 | 382 | 46.1%176 W · 206 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa38a…821dbacked Over | 71c | 1,729$1,219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,219.07 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 65c | 1,603$1,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,045.52 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 18c | 1,167$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$956.56 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1816backed Over | 67c | 507.4$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.61 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | -11.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6534…7cc7backed Under | 20c | 404$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.56 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 80c | 343$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.4 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Over | 68c | 302.1$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.81 | 90 | 70%63 W · 27 L | +11.7wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x26f1…6d2fbacked Over | 69c | 299.99$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76bc…fccabacked Over | 76c | 295.29$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.1 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 12c | 276.07$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.65 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 68c | 231.88$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.68 | 239 | 53.6%128 W · 111 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 58c | 213.94$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.48 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 43c | 175.45$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.68 | 228 | 41.7%95 W · 133 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9900…5cc9backed Under | 9c | 156.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.66 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e0…7387backed Under | 64c | 156.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.48 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 65cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked Under | 56c | 145.13$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.52 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4c…1defbacked Under | 61c | 127.38$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.68 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 26c | 126.84$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.93 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 67c | 112$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.04 | 304 | 44.1%134 W · 170 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Over | 69c | 109$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.67 | 172 | 44.8%77 W · 95 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Under | 24c | 104.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.3 | 92 | 53.3%49 W · 43 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec1e…0d9cbacked Over | 75c | 104.52$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.88 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 26c | 92.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.18 | 134 | 64.9%87 W · 47 L | +17.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x330b…6e60backed Over | 51c | 68.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 18c | 62.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 362 | 47.2%171 W · 191 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 71c | 61$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.31 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 19c | 53.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 120 | 58.3%70 W · 50 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Over | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 273 | 44.3%121 W · 152 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Over | 76c | 41$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 191 | 72.3%138 W · 53 L | +36.8wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xe79f…0204backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf79d…0289backed Over | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked Over | 74c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 126 | 67.5%85 W · 41 L | +11.2wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Over | 69c | 16.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 96 | 60.4%58 W · 38 L | +9.4wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Over | 75c | 13.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Union vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Philadelphia Union vs. Seattle Sounders FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Philadelphia Union vs. Seattle Sounders FC: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Philadelphia Union vs. Seattle Sounders FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Philadelphia Union vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Philadelphia Union vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Philadelphia Union vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Philadelphia Union vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Philadelphia Union vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Philadelphia Union (-1.5)Seattle Sounders FC won
- Spread: Philadelphia Union (-2.5)Seattle Sounders FC won
- Spread: Seattle Sounders FC (-1.5)Philadelphia Union won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.