TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Mls · resolved market

Philadelphia Union vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$90,610
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$90,749

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $90,610 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Mls
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x04d5…66d8backed Over62c48,333$29,884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,883.844261.9%26 W · 16 L+4.5wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+22.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under38c18,331$6,991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,339.331,44436.8%532 W · 912 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under57c13,829$7,922 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,906.8199340.1%398 W · 595 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under38c11,394$4,346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,047.523,01243.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L-29.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x191f…4a8dbacked Over37c6,062$2,238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,238.4314652.1%76 W · 70 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Over40c3,050$1,206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,205.763759.5%22 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+106.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under39c2,482$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,522.221,27048%610 W · 660 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Under38c2,000$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2401450%7 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6bf…8380backed Under40c2,000$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,199.991485.7%12 W · 2 L+5.6wins+0.40per pick46cpaid+88.8%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x91fe…c1c6backed Over39c1,955$769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$769.0738246.1%176 W · 206 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+10.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under62c1,286$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$485.8146156.2%259 W · 202 L+13.4wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed Under38c1,053$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$652.635437%20 W · 34 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under50c1,016$508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$507.5287154.6%476 W · 395 L+34.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed Under38c1,007$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$624.3910848.1%52 W · 56 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+12.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Under38c988.44$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612.8310042%42 W · 58 L-8.9wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-23.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Over33c925.91$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.598945.4%449 W · 540 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Over60c832.61$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.5733346.8%156 W · 177 L-14.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8543…ff1bbacked Under38c697.9$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.57757.1%44 W · 33 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+5.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x114e…dcefbacked Under38c604.05$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$375.591580%12 W · 3 L+5.5wins+0.37per pick43cpaid+87.7%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xf636…5465backed Under38c582.82$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.351136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Under39c555$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.856346%29 W · 34 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8314…0f1ebacked Under41c499.94$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.965464.8%35 W · 19 L+7.6wins+0.14per pick51cpaid+27.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Under40c470.72$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.4326450%132 W · 132 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Over39c406$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.3452639.5%208 W · 318 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3555…208ebacked Over63c396.83$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2503174.2%23 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick66cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x50e5…e39fbacked Under38c323$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.2618456.5%104 W · 80 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x83d9…10d9backed Under38c307.86$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.3211848.3%57 W · 61 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x57cc…0fa7backed Under39c274$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.1410628.3%30 W · 76 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-15.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fce…63d5backed Under38c272.92$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.738454.8%46 W · 38 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2906…555abacked Under40c250$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.28per pick56cpaid-46.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x789c…0d10backed Under40c242.51$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.3312650.8%64 W · 62 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Under48c241.29$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.2122841.7%95 W · 133 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb70d…5925backed Under38c216.47$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.216558.5%38 W · 27 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick56cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6534…7cc7backed Under42c173$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.3420133.3%67 W · 134 L+0.3wins0.00per pick33cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7179…7d79backed Under47c170.21$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.2112551.2%64 W · 61 L+9.7wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+19.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Under52c156.95$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.3423350.6%118 W · 115 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under48c150.31$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.791,26245.2%571 W · 691 L-28.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-21.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca89…7bc4backed Under38c144$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.2814359.4%85 W · 58 L+8.5wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+14.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Over62c138.47$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.3570249.7%349 W · 353 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5659…7a6bbacked Under38c138$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.5652923.8%126 W · 403 L-25.8wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Under58c129$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.6735247.7%168 W · 184 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21db…2a42backed Over40c125$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505431.5%17 W · 37 L-5.8wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-26.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xeab4…f8c6backed Under49c120$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.8580%4 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+20.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1010…d793backed Over60c120$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.414349%70 W · 73 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Under38c110.3$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.3914957.7%86 W · 63 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf5d…df19backed Under49c102.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.041464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+31%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x747f…f2d7backed Under38c101.31$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.8111650.9%59 W · 57 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec56…1816backed Over31c101$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9316437.2%61 W · 103 L-11.4wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-34.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Over34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3436646.7%171 W · 195 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a64…683ebacked Under38c100$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$623647.2%17 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+15%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under60c93.75$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.3682044.5%365 W · 455 L-16.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc8e…944ebacked Over59c84.75$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505676.8%43 W · 13 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick74cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b6e…f544backed Over59c84.74$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010338.8%40 W · 63 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a36…79d3backed Under40c80$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-32.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xecdb…c4c7backed Under40c76.31$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.7610753.3%57 W · 50 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14f3…0796backed Under51c73.24$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.165350.9%27 W · 26 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+53.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd3e…5a7abacked Over40c69.13$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.729070%63 W · 27 L+11.7wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+24%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Over51c68.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3544350.6%224 W · 219 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd87e…36fabacked Under41c68.29$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.29333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-18.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa384…3c9fbacked Under42c59.52$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.522751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x28f7…404dbacked Over60c58.33$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-11.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x40d0…4415backed Under38c54$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.4811055.5%61 W · 49 L-0.5wins0.00per pick56cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6701…d7d2backed Under49c51$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.014955.1%27 W · 22 L+5.0wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+7.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed Under51c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.527344.3%121 W · 152 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f41…8f27backed Over59c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.59747.4%46 W · 51 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a6a…56bdbacked Under40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.255326.4%14 W · 39 L-7.8wins-0.15per pick41cpaid-44.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc785…4ef2backed Over40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2017244.8%77 W · 95 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Over38c45.89$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3436247.2%171 W · 191 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c9b…e74abacked Over60c41.67$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2515638.5%60 W · 96 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-4.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4993…553fbacked Under38c39.92$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.755954.2%32 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf30a…61fbbacked Over37c38$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0613464.9%87 W · 47 L+17.1wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+22.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under58c38$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.9612839.8%51 W · 77 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-19.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d5f…1171backed Under38c37.34$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.159654.2%52 W · 44 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Under38c37$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.9426150.2%131 W · 130 L-13.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb6d2…d67bbacked Under56c37$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.2830957%176 W · 133 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under39c36.5$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.211,30151.2%666 W · 635 L-19.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ed3…0a22backed Under39c36$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.9616955.6%94 W · 75 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19e5…dd71backed Under51c33.03$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.12548%12 W · 13 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa522…2c26backed Under62c32.26$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5213…6a35backed Under38c31.57$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.5710450%52 W · 52 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6db…3155backed Under39c29.93$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.1616948.5%82 W · 87 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf504…0111backed Under55c29.01$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.923461.8%21 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fe0…cc67backed Under51c29$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.252661.5%16 W · 10 L+3.6wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+17.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xeaac…d71dbacked Under38c28.94$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.9412146.3%56 W · 65 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4db…e401backed Under38c26.34$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.332176.2%16 W · 5 L+5.5wins+0.26per pick50cpaid+63.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xc75b…3ea7backed Under62c25.7$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.819056.3%107 W · 83 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Over61c25.64$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.641,00946.2%466 W · 543 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x395e…cba5backed Under54c24$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.04450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-21.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over59c23.22$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.791553%485 W · 430 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7b5…8762backed Over61c21.8$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7218…ea41backed Over63c21.52$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.561675%12 W · 4 L+3.1wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+36.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.