Mls · resolved market
Spread: Philadelphia Union (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad2eeba210f6a7e02d1d363219c22a081b5632a1667fdd852045ee9e7e58bc2d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Seattle Sounders FCof Philadelphia Union, Seattle Sounders FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,528
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,355
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,528 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Philadelphia Union | 30c | 3,253$966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$966.09 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Seattle Sounders FC | 71c | 2,432$1,720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$711.3 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Seattle Sounders FC | 70c | 1,722$1,214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.97 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Philadelphia Union | 31c | 646.13$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.63 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Philadelphia Union | 37c | 645.04$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.44 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Seattle Sounders FC | 72c | 468.76$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.15 | 264 | 50%132 W · 132 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed Philadelphia Union | 29c | 431.74$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.2 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57b7…fcf0backed Philadelphia Union | 26c | 333.5$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Seattle Sounders FC | 70c | 255.99$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.8 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Seattle Sounders FC | 69c | 177.59$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.04 | 233 | 50.6%118 W · 115 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba1d…d326backed Philadelphia Union | 63c | 177.31$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.11 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Philadelphia Union | 29c | 166.28$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.22 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f41…8f27backed Seattle Sounders FC | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91fe…c1c6backed Seattle Sounders FC | 76c | 98.92$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.91 | 382 | 46.1%176 W · 206 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Seattle Sounders FC | 66c | 91.28$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.09 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Philadelphia Union | 26c | 76.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Seattle Sounders FC | 69c | 68.3$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.34 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4438…f659backed Philadelphia Union | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Seattle Sounders FC | 75c | 54.94$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Seattle Sounders FC | 59c | 50.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 120 | 58.3%70 W · 50 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Philadelphia Union | 25c | 50.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Philadelphia Union | 35c | 49.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Seattle Sounders FC | 43c | 48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Seattle Sounders FC | 37c | 41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Seattle Sounders FC | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 111 | 44.1%49 W · 62 L | -9.4wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f34…ed6abacked Seattle Sounders FC | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Seattle Sounders FC | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 443 | 50.6%224 W · 219 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a62…5247backed Seattle Sounders FC | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 63cpaid | -32%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Philadelphia Union (-1.5)this page
- Philadelphia Union vs. Seattle Sounders FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Philadelphia Union vs. Seattle Sounders FC: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Philadelphia Union vs. Seattle Sounders FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Philadelphia Union vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Philadelphia Union vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Philadelphia Union vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Philadelphia Union vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Philadelphia Union vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Philadelphia Union vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Philadelphia Union (-2.5)Seattle Sounders FC won
- Spread: Seattle Sounders FC (-1.5)Philadelphia Union won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.