NBA · resolved market
Bulls vs Nuggets
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x892f0b14bf4e0740845337b2271bb0635c42853b643698b0085fe7c03d0060d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bullsof Bulls, Nuggets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,279
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,053
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,279 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfc25…1f7fbacked Nuggets | 60c | 2,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 964 | 47.8%461 W · 503 L | +35.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Bulls | 40c | 2,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Nuggets | 57c | 1,376$784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$784.42 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe505…d18bbacked Bulls | 42c | 1,372$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795.89 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Nuggets | 59c | 1,140$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.08 | 613 | 45.5%279 W · 334 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe8…56a3backed Nuggets | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 321 | 30.2%97 W · 224 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x725f…06c2backed Bulls | 45c | 898.12$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.12 | 1,888 | 37.3%704 W · 1,184 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Bulls | 67c | 896$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.29 | 1,316 | 50.5%664 W · 652 L | +42.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…1219backed Nuggets | 60c | 750$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453 | 236 | 58.1%137 W · 99 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Nuggets | 58c | 208.4$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.63 | 618 | 35.4%219 W · 399 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…b7debacked Bulls | 43c | 135.33$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.14 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Nuggets | 57c | 129.29$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.69 | 377 | 34%128 W · 249 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3585…1595backed Nuggets | 56c | 90$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Nuggets | 58c | 52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 623 | 51.4%320 W · 303 L | -13.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab3c…5093backed Nuggets | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 155 | 38.1%59 W · 96 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccac…ab7dbacked Nuggets | 59c | 31.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e14…f3cebacked Nuggets | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d2…a3afbacked Nuggets | 60c | 24.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Nuggets | 59c | 20.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Bulls | 52c | 20.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 299 | 57.2%171 W · 128 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.